Bob Hill
Staff writer
Tracksideview.com

Saturday at the 2009 Breeders’ Cup

Eight Breeders’ Cup contests highlight the card for Saturday, Nov. 7 at Oak Tree at Santa Anita.  With the announcement of pre-entries earlier this week, the scope of speculation can now be narrowed since we at least know the names of horses whose connections intend for them to run next week.  Horses shown in italics have been cross entered in two races, and the number following their names indicate the preference of their owners and trainers for which race to enter given the chance to do so.  Preferences named at the time of entry on Oct. 28 are not binding on the owners.

Juvenile Turf – There are 20 two-year-olds pre-entered for this race in which the field is limited to 12 runners.  Only one horse on the list of also pre-entered colts, Summer Movie, owns a win on the grass at Santa Anita.  He is on the also eligible list and would need six others to defect in order to get in.  His win came in a maiden special weight race last time out.

Buzzword (1), Pounced, Vale of York (IRE), and Viscount Nelson all own stakes wins in Europe and must be taken as serious contenders in this race.  King Ledley is another with European experience that appears likely for this race, and the list of also eligibles includes Awesome Act (1) and Oasis Dancer (GB).  The former will need the defection of two entries to get into this field, and Oasis Dancer will need for five to defect if he is to get it.

Interactif owns wins in two Grade 3 turf races in this country and seems to be the most logical of the American entries.  Bridgetown is another Grade 3 winner from the U.S., and the runners-up to these two in their most recent races – Cody and Becky’s Kitten respectively – also would appear to be worth considering.  Other American-based hopefuls include Eskendereya (2), Gallant Gent (1), and Zip Quick.

The also eligible list contains the names of eight colts that will get into the race in the following order if spots open for them:  Kera’s Kitten, Awesome Act (1), Dean’s Kitten, Raging Wit, Oasis Dancer, Summer Movie, Mint Chip, and Fist of Rage (2). 

This will prove to be a challenging and most likely rewarding betting race as favoritism will be spread among the many contenders.

Turf Sprint – I’ll start here with the angle that I think is most likely to produce the winner – one that has won on this tricky downhill course.  There are 22 pre-entries for this race which is limited to 14 that will be allowed into the starting gate.  Of the entire group of 22, seven have won on this course before. They are California Flag, Cherokee Heaven (last on the also eligible list), last year’s winner Desert Code, Get Funky, Gotta Have Her, the filly Lethal Heat (1), and Noble Court.

Pre-entries that are not on the also eligible list, that have not won on this course, and are likely to make the field include Cannonball, Delta Storm, the mare Diamondrella, the filly Fleeting Spirit (2), the filly Game Face, European shipper Lord Shanakill, and Silver Timber.

Those hoping for defections that will get them in the field, listed in the order of their eligibility include Canadian Ballet, Square Eddie (1), Dancing in Silks (2), Get Funky, El Gato Malo (1), Only Green (IRE) (2), Tenga Cat, and the aforementioned Cherokee Heaven.

Dirt Mile – This is another race that has a long also eligible list and 14 horses that are double entered.  The best place to start in thinking about contenders is to look at those that are not on the also eligible list and are not double entered.  This group includes Mambo Meister, Midshipman, and Pyro.  Midshipman won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on this track, and Pyro has a single Grade 1 win while sprinting at a distance of 7 furlongs.

The next group to consider is comprised of those that are cross entered in this race, show this race as their top preference, and also are not on the also eligible list.  They are Bullsbay (1), Chocolate Candy (1), Crown of Thorns (1), the European-based Mastercraftsman (IRE) (1), and French stakes winner Sweet Hearth (1).  Most would agree that this group includes several of the true contenders.

An interesting group to look at is the one made up of those that are listed as in this field but have another race in which they are cross entered shown as their top preference.  Because there always is the chance of some gamesmanship going on among trainers and owners, it may be wise to remember that those preferences are non-binding.  This group includes Cowboy Cal (2), Girolamo (2), Quality Road (2), and Regal Ransom (2).  The presence of any of these in this race would add to the handicapping challenge and greatly upgrade the overall quality of the race.

The long list of also eligible horses in this race in the order in which they would fill available spots includes:  Karelian (2), Mr. Sydney (2), Ready’s Echo, Furthest Land, Monzante (2), Neko Bay, El Gato Malo (2), Cherokee Artist, and Join in the Dance (2).

Mastercraftsman, a three-year-old son of Danehill Dancer, owns four Group 1 wins on turf, and he won a Group 3 race on synthetics in his only try on that surface.  It is hard not to like his chances.  I also find Girolamo and Midshipman quite interesting.

Juvenile – This race has the reputation of being formful in most years, although upsets at long odds have occurred as well.  Limited to 12 runners, eight of the pre-entries won’t make the field.  If we look at those guaranteed of a spot that are not cross entered we will see most of the likely favorites. This group includes Futurity runner-up Aikenite, Irish Group 1 winner Alfred Nobel (IRE), Aspire, British Group 1 winner Beethoven (IRE), double graded stakes winner D’Funnybone, undefeated and multiple Grade 1 winner Lookin At Lucky, Grade 1 winner Noble’s Promise, Piscitelli, Pulsion, and British Group 2 winner Radiohead (GB). Wow!

The stakes-placed Vale of York (IRE) is double entered and indicates this race as top preference.  Minus a change of plans by Godolphin, this is the race he will enter.  There also are colts cross entered in this race and the Juvenile Turf that indicate second preference here.  They are more likely to defect.  This group includes another Godolphin colt Buzzword (GB) (2), Gallant Gent (2), and Group 1 runner-up Pounced (2).

The order in which also eligibles will make this field as some defect is as follows:  Dave in Dixie, Eskendereya (1), William’s Kitten, Awesome Act (2), Mint Chip (2), and Fist of Rage (1).

Lookin At Lucky is a very nice two-year-old, but he will be far too short a price for me to take a real short price in this competitive field.  I really like Aikenite and you have to figure one or more of the European-based colts will show up tough somewhere in this race.

Mile (Turf) – Fourteen horses are entered in this race, the exact number of spots available to make a full field.  Awesome Gem and Colonel John are cross entered in the Classic, and both have listed that race as their preference.  Unless the connections of one or both change their minds they are assured of spots in that race. 

Goldikova (IRE) is the defending champion in this race, and she will be the deserving favorite to defend her title.  Her presence did not dissuade Godolphin from entering Delegator (GB), a multiple Group 2 winner in Great Britain, or Sheikh Mansoor Maktoum from entering Group 1 winner Gladiatorus.  Sir Michael Stute enters Zacinto (GB), a group placed three-year-old owned by Juddmonte.

Cowboy Cal (1), Justenuffhumor, and Court Vision are top American four-year-olds that will step up onto the world stage in this race.  Each has had some very positive moments on the turf, but this will be a true test of class for them.  Other American-based entries include three-year-old Courageous Cat, Ferneley (IRE), Karelian (1), Mr. Sydney (1), and Whatsthescript (IRE) – the third place finisher in this race last year.

Goldikova, Cowboy Cal, and Whatsthescript are the only entries that own a win on the Santa Anita turf.  They will make up more than one trifecta box on this day.

Sprint – Only 11 are entered in this race, a disappointing number to some.  There is no doubt that some outstanding sprinters on dirt passed this race because of the surface, but there is plenty of quality remaining to assure a competitive race.  Three-year-old Zensational excels at the six-furlong distance and has won five of six on synthetics.  He has won three straight Grade 1 races for trainer Bob Baffert.

Other options exist in this race as well.  Kodiak Kowboy is a top sprinter, and although he has limited experience on synthetics his running style is made for the surface.  Gayego has won both starts in the U.S. this summer after spending the winter in Dubai.  He comes in off a Grade 1 win in the Ancient Title.  Fatal Bullet, runner-up to Midnight Lute in this race last year, has been in the exacta in all 11 races on synthetics.  Even the boys at Lucky’s can see that as a strong angle to consider.  Capt. Candyman Can (2) is another three-year-old possessing strong credentials.

Crown of Thorns (2) was the runner-up in the Ancient Title and is more likely in the Dirt Mile.  Cost of Freedom is a synthetic specialist at this distance.  However, his recent races are not awe inspiring.  Dancing in Silks is another West Coast synth specialist.  Square Eddie (2) is yet another three-year-old that is cross entered in the Turf Sprint.

Dancing in Silks (1), Fleeting Spirit (IRE) (1), and Join in the Dance (1) are all cross entered in this race, and they are assured of spots in the starting gate unless their connections change their minds about the race of preference.  Fleeting Spirit is a Group 1 winner in Great Britain sprinting on the grass.  He finished fourth last year in the Turf Sprint down the hill at Santa Anita, but it appears that her connections want to take a shot at the boys on the Pro Ride.

There are many angles to consider in this race.  It just could be that there will be no catching Zensational, but I would give that some thought before reaching that conclusion too quickly.

Turf – Conduit (IRE) leads a strong and deep contingent of European-based horses, one of which should win this race.  In his last start, Conduit finished fourth in the Arc de Triomphe a respectable 2 ¼ lengths behind winner Sea the Stars.    Four-year-old filly Dar Re Mi (GB) (1) is cross entered in the Filly and Mare Turf, but this race is her announced preference.  She finished a length behind Conduit in the Arc, so one can see why her connections are confident that she can compete here.

Now six years old, Red Rocks (IRE) is back for another go in a race that he won in 2006 and in which he finished third in 2007.  He was soundly beaten last year and has show little form since his win in the Grade 1 Man ’o War in the summer of 2008.  Spanish Moon is a Group 1 winner entered by Sir Michael Stoute that more than one European handicapper rates as having a chance to win this race.

Other than the always exciting Presious Passion, American entries in this race do not induce much enthusiasm for the idea of dethroning the Europeans from top spot in this division.  Maybe he will see if he can open up a 20-length lead in this race for the fun of it.  Allegre owns minor stakes awards at Turf Paradise (oh, my!), so excuse me if I ask what he is doing in this company?  Monzante (1) is trained by top conditioner Mike Mitchell, but that is about the only plus I see for him.  Summer Bird (2) is cross entered in the Classic and assured of a spot there.  Telling blew up the tote board at 33-1 this summer in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer, but his competition will be a much better than Better Talk Now and Brass Hat were in that race.

Convert your dollars to Euros here!

Classic – I know, I know!  I get the argument that it will be great for the sport for Zenyatta (1) to run in the Classic rather than in the Ladies Classic.  I wonder though if doing so and finishing third or fourth will be as great a story in the long run as winning 14 in row might be.  I may be about the only person in North America hoping that she runs on Friday rather than on Saturday.

This race is over-subscribed by two entries, but I suspect that all that really want to run in this race will get the chance to do so.  Unless their declarations of preference are changed or were shaky in the first place, Bullsbay (2), Chocolate Candy (2), and Mastercraftsman (2) will enter other races.  That means Girolamo (1) will be added to this field.

Rip Van Winkle is the European-based horse that has been on the tip of the tongues of the wise guys looking for a sequel to the heroics of Raven’s Run a year ago.  The three-year-old is a multiple Group 1 winner in Great Britain, and he has competed admirably both times when facing Sea the Stars.  He will not be a bargain on Nov. 7.  Gio Ponti, on the other hand, is 12-1 in the morning line.  He has been trained in the manner of European horses by master conditioner Christophe Clement.  He excels at the distance of 10 furlongs.  He is a multiple Grade 1 winner.

Even without the star power of Zenyatta and Rip Van Winkle, there are a number of American-based runners in this race that will make for a very interesting end to the Breeders’ Cup extravaganza.  Quality Road (1) and Regal Ransom (1) are outstanding three-year-olds.  Mine That Bird is the Kentucky Derby champion, although I have some doubt about his liking the Pro Ride. Summer Bird won the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and he beat older horses last time out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.  The big question will concern how he adapts to the artificial surface.

Colonel John (1) always competes at Santa Anita. Einstein (BRZ) is a sentimental favorite of many handicappers and he has hit the board in 12 of his last 15 races, the majority of which have been Grade 1 contests.  Richard’s Kid is a late blooming four-year-old that upset the Pacific Classic in September.  He has become a different horse under the tutelage of Bob Baffert, and he is a different horse on synthetics than he was on dirt.  Awesome Gem is the only entry about which I cannot find something positive to say.

If Zenyatta is in this race I still will be surprised if she is able to beat these.  The competition that she has beaten for the past year has not included horses of the caliber that she will face in the Classic.  Her last two races suggest some minor drop off in form, and she would have to run back to her very best speed figure in the Classic to have a chance.  Add to these factors the notion that she will be over bet as the sentimental favorite, and she adds up to a very hard play for me on all but the longest vertical tickets.  With all that said, if she runs in this race I’ll stand and hope she wins because she is a terrific horse and her connections are wonderful people.