Kat Kubik,
Bob Hill
and Rick Francis
Staff writers

There are three graded stakes races this Saturday for three-year-olds, all at the distance of 1 1/16 miles.  These races offer the prospect of shedding considerable light on knowing better which ones are developing into true contenders for Kentucky Derby contenders.  TrackSideView’s staff writers Kat, Rick and Bob offer their picks in these three races.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10 – Tampa Bay Derby G3, 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds

The 36th Running of the Tampa Bay Derby offers up a field of seven with three entries making their first graded stakes start. Let’s start with the “rookie.”  Slammy Boy (4), with only a maiden turf win the day after Christmas, is up against it.  Fills a slot in the starting gate.   The Gulfstream effort in last shows that Tuvia’s Force (5) wants to go longer and gets his chance today. Trainer Nick Zito has this one burning up the morning workouts. Expect a solid improvement today, but it won’t be enough.

 Odysseus (7), winner of two straight, including impressive 15-length score at this distance and track is fast and will push the pace deep into the stretch. His only problem, a couple of these will be there with him.  Gleam of Hope (3) has not fared well against graded company. Connections, I believe are still searching for right distance and surface. They won’t find it today.

A month ago I thought Uptowncharlybrown (1) was ready for added distance and top flight competition, but now I’m not so sure.  Once again he’s burning up the workouts, and that may be where he leaves his best efforts. As was the case in the Sam Davis with Rule, he faces another beast today.  Schoolyard Dreams (5) with back to back bullet works has the speed to keep close early. Trainer Derek Ryan knows this guy has to step it up to keep that first Saturday in May in his dreams so look for all out effort.

With three months off being the only concern, Super Saver (6) is the class of the field.  Lone graded stakes winner in the group needs to avoid speed duel with his outside foe. That being said, he could just outright wire this bunch. Having enough graded earnings to get in the Derby, I’m sure trainer Todd Pletcher’s instructions to jockey Ramon Dominguez will be, win but don’t kill him.  Since I’m not picking against Rachel or Zenyatta, I’m thinking you don’t get Super Saver’s best effort and Schoolyard Dreams catches him at the wire.  Rick’s Picks:  5-6-7-1

It is not going to surprise anyone that my top four picks are the same as Rick’s, although I’m going in a different direction on top.  Alan Seewald puts the hood on Uptowncharlybrown (1).  With virtually no speed drawn in the three positions to his outside he should make it to the clubhouse turn without getting shuffled back too far.  That is good news for his backers.  Schoolyard Dreams (5) was caught wide early in the Sam Davis, but for the same reason that I think Uptowncharlybrown will not get shuffled back I think that Schoolyard Dreams can avoid being caught wide.

I anticipate that Super Saver (6) will get to the lead with relative ease, unless for some reason he misses the break.  I truly believe that his connections have him entered here as a warm-up for his next race.  He will take it as far as he can on the deep Tampa surface, and if he is a little short Pletcher and company will get out of the race what they expect.  Odysseus (7) should get a great stalking trip outside Super Saver. There is significant buzz surrounding this son of Malibu Moon based on his convincing allowance win on this track at this distance last month.  He will have to improve to win this, but that outcome is not out of the question.

I expect Super Saver to give it up in the stretch, and if he does I think that Odysseus is the beneficiary.  Schoolyard Dreams is my pick for second and Uptowncharlybrown for fourth behind Super Saver.  I plan to see some of these in the Illinois Derby in April.  Bob’s Picks:  7-5-6-1.

I am one of those who jumped on Odysseus’s (7) bandwagon after his allowance win.  This colt looked like a freak with that 15-length win and I look forward to seeing if he can continue to move forward and prove himself against good horses like Super Saver (6) and Schoolyard Dreams (5).  He is definitely on my short list of Derby hopefuls and he needs another strong effort to prove he belongs there.  Super Saver is understandably the favorite after a runaway victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club.  He could be tough on the lead, but there are a few who can stick with him and he may not hold on over a tiring surface in his first start of the year.  Schoolyard Dreams should make a good showing today but even with a third place today he has a long way to go.  However, this is the time of year when three year olds can really step it up, so we’ll see what happens with this guy.  Uptowncharlybrown (1) is another who needs to step it up pretty quickly, but he has continued to improve with each start.  Kat’s Picks: 7-6-5-1

Oaklawn Park, Race 10 – The Rebel G2, 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds

This is a huge weekend for Derby hopefuls with many of our best prospects taking to the track.  The Rebel has shaped up extremely well, and I could envision as many as five of these horses making it to the gate at Churchill. 

Lookin At Lucky (2) leads the field as the two-year-old champion and three time Grade 1 winner.  He has lost only once and that was by a head after a bad trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.  He could be the best three-year old in the country, but since he has yet to start this year, he will have to prove it quickly.  However, the long break was planned and Baffert says he has the colt ready to win – if not peak.  Lucky also will be trying dirt for the first time and will wear blinkers to keep him focused in the stretch. 

Noble’s Promise (6) finished just behind Lucky in the Juvenile and the CashCall Futurity, and he too will be making his first start of the year.  He also will be trying dirt for the first time, although he trains on it and is bred for it.  Since he finished behind Lucky twice even when the races didn’t set up well for Lucky, I don’t expect him to get the win today.  Uh Oh Bango (4) also will be making his first, highly-anticipated, start of the year.  He won a stakes by 10 and followed that up with two Grade 3 placings.  I think he may be too fresh and have too much company up front to get the win, but he has his fans.

One horse that already has a race this year at Oaklawn is Dublin (7).  After surgery for an entrapped epiglottis Dublin returned to the track to run a strong second in the Southwest.  He should like the added distance and the fast pace, and by all accounts he continues to look sensational in the mornings.  Lukas is confident that he will improve off that race, and if so, he may be the one to beat.   Closing right along with him in the Southwest was Cardiff Giant (1).  He is as consistent as they come with only one off-the-board finish from eleven starts.  He tries hard every time and you could get another decent price on him.  But, I don’t see how he will suddenly get better than Dublin.

The final two will be facing stiff competition but I think both deserve to be here.  Royal Express (3) is an Illinois-bred who won the Black Gold at Fair Grounds and was second to a good horse in Backtalk in his last race.  He will most likely be the speed.  I had high hopes for Pleasant Storm (5) in the Southwest but he could finish only seventh.  He had three strong prior races, and will have to turn it around to be a factor today.

So Lucky or Dublin?  While Lucky is in good hands and appears to have matured over the winter, he still has a lot to overcome.  Baffert also says he may sit closer, and with all the speed I wonder how that will work.  Meanwhile, Dublin already has a race over the track and is ready to improve in his second start of the year. So for those reasons I have to give Dublin the slight edge – for now. Kat’s Picks: 7-2-1-6

I do not pick winners based on jockeys, but I do pick losers because of jockeys that I do not trust.  Cory Nakatani is at the top of that list for me.  His ride last week for Wayne Lukas still has me shaking my head.  I absolutely love Dublin (7) and would stand right with Kat in picking him if another jock was aboard.  Wouldn’t Calvin be great on this guy?  Unfortunately, Calvin is at the Fairgrounds on Saturday with his girlfriend Rachel.

I see this as an experiment race for Bob Baffert.  He is going to find out how Lookin At Lucky (2) likes the dirt and handles blinkers.  Bullet Bob usually works them pretty fast when he’s serious, and one cannot find those types of numbers in the black type under Lucky’s name.  He may be so good that he wins this race, but this is probably as vulnerable as you’ll catch him this year.

Like Kat, I don’t like the likely pace scenario for Uh Oh Bango (4).  By the process of elimination that leads me to Noble’s Promise (6).  I will admit that I would much rather pick Dublin and don’t blame you if that is where you land.  By Derby Day, I anticipate really liking Dublin.  Bob’s Picks:  6-7-2-1

 Santa Anita, Race 9 – San Felipe G2, 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds on ProRide

It does not take a genius to see that there are five horses in this field that could win the San Felipe.  Caracortado (7) has never lost.  He was won twice on this track at this distance, including last out in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis.  He is the horse they will have to beat.

Interactif (2) missed the win by less than a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.  He finished ahead of Awesome Act, and that one won the Grade 3 Gotham last weekend off a similar layoff.  Turf-to-synth is a great angle at Santa Anita for horses with back class, and this guy has plenty of that.  The lure of the Derby is calling his name.

American Lion (4) and Sidney’s Candy (5) each have something to prove in this race. Each has to earn additional stakes money to get a spot on Derby Day.  American Lion gets blinkers for the first time, and in a field with no confirmed front runner one has to wonder if he will set the pace.  Sidney’s Candy (5) goes around two turns for the first time, and he did win the Grade 3 San Vincente on the muscle last month, but he did show the ability to rate in prior races.  It would be no surprise if either of these steps up for the win.

I am anxiously awaiting the Santa Anita Derby to get a real handle on Dave in Dixie (6).  The way he closed in the Robert Lewis will cause more than a few to bet on him on Saturday.  I have a feeling this race is still not at his ideal distance, but any of these youngsters can leap forward in a short time.  If he runs well here, he will be my pick in the Santa Anita Derby.

Stephen Got Hope (1) and Erbeia (3) round out the field.  That’s enough ink on that topic.  I’m going chalky and sticking with Caracortado in here.  I’m puzzled by the likely pace scenario, so I will admit to some guess work here.  One possibility is that the pressers will let Sidney’s Candy go and hope to catch him in the stretch.  Or one of them could push him hard down the backstretch and compromise each other.  My picks show you which gamble I’m taking.  Bob’s Picks:  7-6-4-2

Stephen’s Got Hope (1), but maiden has little else.  Even with maiden score in last, Erbeia (3) has no chance against this group.  The early story of this race has been multiple graded stakes winner Interactif (2) trying to take his turf winning ways to synthetics. This has been a smart play in the past, but it must be noted, this is not trainer Todd Pletcher’s strongest angle.

American Lion’s (4) bobbled start may have cost him a place finish in the Lewis, but it didn’t cost him the win. The blinkers angle here for trainer Eoin Hardy is a strong one.  For the son of three time Grade 1 champion Candy Ride, Sidney’s Candy (5) is screaming for the extra distance he gets today. I dismissed him in the San Vicente, but that won’t happen again today.

Dave in Dixie’s (6) tough place finish in last can’t be ignored. Had his excuses, but also had his chances. He just couldn’t reel in the winner of the Lewis. That winner, Caracortado (7) goes for his third straight at this distance and sixth straight overall.  Previous three wins were flattered by place finishers going on to win next out.  It won’t get any easier from this point forward, but maybe that’s what his competition is thinking. Playing the streak all the way with this guy.  Rick’s Picks:  7-5-2-4

I think Caracortado (7) is the real deal and I expect him to win this and continue toward the Derby unbeaten.  He has enough speed to be versatile, but he can also “out close” his competition.  In this race, his main concern is catching Sidney’s Candy (5).  That one was extremely impressive in his San Vicente, and his pedigree suggests the distance will not be a problem.  But, you never know until they do it so he is vulnerable today.  I would hope American Lion (4) has learned his lesson and he will not try to go with Sidney.  He was a disappointing third in the San Vicente, and while I assumed they would switch him to dirt, I will give him another chance with the hope that he will benefit from a stalking position.  The pace may dictate who gets fourth.  If Sidney is in a hurry that will help Dave in Dixie (6), who will be coming from the clouds, but if he slows it down that will help Interactif (2).  But either way, Interactif has a lot more to overcome since he is shipping to California and leaving the grass where he has been so successful. So I will give the edge to Dave in Dixie.  Kat’s Picks: 7-5-4-6