Bob Hill,
Kat Kubik
and Rick Francis
Staff writers
The three-year-olds take center stage for the Tracksideview.com’s handicappers with the redrawn Sham Stakes (canceled last week because of wet track at Santa Anita Park) and the Gotham at Aqueduct in New York. As a bonus, the legendary Santa Anita Handicap also will get a look from the handicappers.
Race 10, Aqueduct — Gotham G3, 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds
With Super Saver, Tiz Chrome, and Sidney’s Candy all skipping the Gotham, it is easy to be disappointed with this field. However, at this point in the season you never know who is going to jump up and prove himself a contender, and you could make a case for any of these horses.
The most interesting colt may be Awesome Act (4), who was fourth by just over a length in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf in his only U.S. start. He will have to overcome the layoff and trying two turns in his first race back, but he is bred for the distance and he has a good jockey in Leparoux. The most accomplished horse is Peppi Knows (6) who is a generous 10-1. He won the Whirlaway over two in this field: Three Day Rush (1) and Afleet Again (9). That was a light race, but at least he has experience over the distance at this track. Yawanna Twist (2) looks promising with an undefeated record and competitive speed figures, but he will be going beyond 6 furlongs and note that his jockey opted for Turf Melody (8). That one has a stake win to his credit, but hasn’t been competitive in graded stakes.
The Lukas-trained, Wow Wow Wow (10) has received some attention following his gate-to-wire win in optional claiming company at Oaklawn. He ran similarly to break his maiden, but those were just two strong races among many mediocre ones. Shrimp Dancer (7) has never been off the board since his first start, but he has only one win against weaker than what he will face this time. I’ve Got Fever (5) really stepped it up to break his maiden in front-running fashion in his fifth start. He won’t get an easy lead this time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce. Finally we’ve got Nacho Friend (3), who won his maiden and was a length back in the grade two Sanford in July at 6 furlongs.
I think the best colt could be the invader, Awesome Act. He will appreciate a quick tempo and he has the breeding to handle dirt. I will use Yawanna Twist for second despite the jockey change. He loves the track and who knows how good he will be. Peppi Knows has done little wrong and the win at the trip makes him the danger. Three Day Rush was carried wide in the Whirlaway and that probably cost him a lot. He beat a nice horse in Mission Impazible before that, and he is Pletcher’s lone hope in this race since Super Saver is going elsewhere. Kat’s Picks: 4-2-6-1
Three Day Rush (1) was game till the end in the Whirlaway. Don’t know if the shock of going from Florida to frigid New York had anything to do with it, but look for the hottest trainer on the Derby trail, Todd Pletcher, to have this guy move forward. The sire of Yawanna Twist (2) was a graded stakes winning sprinter, but steps up from the state bred ranks today, and will have his hands full. Going long with graded stakes company overshadows two impressive wins. The concern about Nacho Friend (3) is that he has been on the bench since summering at the Spa. A series of bullet works shows he’s fast, but for how long. Willing to watch one.
Awesome Act (4) tries dirt for the first time after solid effort on the Santa Anita lawn against Grade 2 company. Won’t be intimidated by this group, but feel grass is where he should stay. I’ve Got the Fever (5) — and so must his connections. Twenty point Beyer jump in his lone win is the prescription for a bounce. See a doctor, or maybe they did in last. Regardless of what happened to the favorite in last, Peppi Knows (6) was there all the way. He’s battle tested, been working well, so I’m looking for a repeat. Shrimp Dancer (7) has money finishes in last six races, mostly against state breds. Even with a quality worksheet, this one’s up against it.
Turf Melody (8) – eight for eight and now going for nine for nine. No, not in wins, but races on different racetracks. Hasn’t ducked anybody, he’s just a cut below. His racetrack tour won’t take him to Churchill.
Afleet Again (9) might have caught Peppi if the distance was longer. It wasn’t, and neither is this race. Had his chances, just couldn’t. Question is, what does he have left? I’m guessing third place. Wow Wow Wow (10) bounced back nicely after Smarty Jones pounding, which is proving to be not that tough a field. Workouts best describe his name, and for that he gets included in my superfectas. Rick’s Picks: 6–1-9-10.
This is the time of year that some owners and trainers do strange things with their three-year-olds in response to the allure of the Kentucky Derby. Such is the case with the connections of Awesome Act (4). If you are inclined to take a shot with him you have to do so without the benefit of information about any works he may have had on dirt. Talk about flying blind.
Nacho Friend (3) has been off since his one-length loss in the Sanford last summer at Saratoga. He shows three bullet works in Florida and ships in for trainer Kelly Breen. This is not the toughest field in the world, so I give him a shot. Wow Wow Wow (10) is another I like in the Gotham. He has thrown some real clunkers along the way, but he should make the lead from his outside draw, and he may just give them the slip.
Peppi Knows (6) is an honest type that probably will get a great stalking trip, and if that happens he will be right there at the end. Based on their work in the Whirlaway, the same can be said for Afleet Again (9) and Three Day Rush (1). I’m going to play Wow Wow Wow to wire this bunch, and I’ll play Nacho Friend, Peppi Knows, and Three Day Rush under him. On longer tickets I’ll include Awesome Act and Afleet Again in my trifecta plays. Bob’s Picks: 10-3-6-1
Race 7, Santa Anita – Sham G3, 1 1/8 miles for three-year-olds on ProRide
One or more of these horses will emerge as a true contender for the Santa Anita Derby because the Sham is contested at the same distance of nine furlongs. Five horses appear to me to be contenders, and a win by any of the five would not surprise me. If you are playing this race in the Pick 4 or Pick 6 you had better cover yourself.
The Program (2) has hit the board in four of his last five tries. By Harlan’s Holiday, he should handle the distance just fine. There was talk earlier in the week prior to the original date for the Sham that Eoin Harty might hold Kettle River (6) out of the race, but here he is. His races are spread quite far apart, and thus the question I have concerns his health and soundness. Setsuko (7) is a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic Champ Pleasantly Perfect out of the Richard Mandella barn. It’s hard to not like all of that information. He is very consistent and has been in every race since his first maiden try.
Nextdoorneighbor (9) enters this race with some buzz surrounding his name. He is trained by Mike Machowsky who also has Caracortado in his care. Bejarano chose Setsuko over this one – a decision he might regret at the end of the race. The final horse I like in this race is Outlaw Man (3). It is true that his lone win came on the sod at this distance, but there have been a few to step off the grass and onto the ProRide with great success.
Marcello (1) joins the field this week. He was not entered last Saturday. El Mirage King (4) faces winners for the first time, and also goes two turns for the first time. Boulder Creek (5) is another that was entered this week after not being in the field earlier. He broke his maiden at 1 1/16 miles and is the son of Tapit. Owned by West Point Thoroughbreds, he may blossom into a competitor in this type of race, but it seems a pretty big jump for him to win this time. Wolf Trail (8) is a regular mid-pack finisher in state-bred races. Alphie’s Bet (10) faces winners for the first time after beating state-bred colts on the grass last out.
If I could be convinced of the fitness of Kettle River, he would be my pick. Because I am not, I am going to take a shot at an exacta box of Nextdoorneighbor and Outlaw Man. Setsuko is my pick for third place, followed by The Program. Kettle River could blow all of this up in a heartbeat if he is primed and ready to go. Bob’s Picks: 9-3-7-2
It’s unfortunate the Grade 3 Sham falls on Santa Anita’s biggest day, because now it’s an afterthought. So let’s get to the contenders.
Marcello (1) has to be Baffert’s rabbit. Owners don’t know it yet, but with up and down Beyer’s, this is his down cycle. My thoughts on The Program (2) have changed. Solid closing efforts in last two, plus the extra 110 yards in this race, put’s him right in the mix. The two-month absence is a concern for Kettle River (6), but he’s had a consistent workout sheet, and for that, I’ll include.
Setsuko (7) has to be considered. Classic winning sire, money finishes in last six. I liked Nextdoorneighbor (9) last week, and love him this week. Hot workout Sunday only reinforces that this colt is and up and comer. Rick’s Picks: 9-2-7-6. (On multi race wagers consider the 3.)
Race 10, Santa Anita – Santa Anita Handicap, 1 ¼ miles for four-year-olds and up on ProRide
Since 1935, the Santa Anita Handicap has had the legends of the game answer its call to post. Seabiscuit, John Henry, Shoemaker and Wittingham are just a few to have claimed Crown Jewel of racing. With only one Grade 1 winner in a full field of 14, the 73rd edition of the Big Cap will be short on legends.
Pick Six (1) lost lead late in Grade 2 San Antonio last out. Extra furlong today doesn’t help. St. Trinians (2) is the winner of four straight, including Grade 2 score in last. Distance not an issue, have to consider. One of two with most wins, seven. Rendezvous (3) wasn’t a factor to a couple of these in Strub. Two solid works since, but can’t consider for top prize. Grade 2 winner Neko Bay (4) battles with every start. First class jockey Mike Smith and trainer John Shirreffs will have this guy rolling late. Added distance will only help.
With a maiden score and three allowance wins to his credit, Eagle Poise (5) is overmatched. We know the turf to Pro Ride play is a solid one, plus Loup Breton (6) ran just a little over 2:00 minutes at this distance on the grass. Do not ignore. Mast Track (7) is the lone Grade 1 winner in field, but he has not done well with the “classic” distance since the summer of 2008. Would expect much of the same today.
Can’t see Pool Play (8) finding the speed to be a factor with this group. Marsh Side (9) was DQ’ed to fourth in Grade 1 Northern Dancer when he came in like a NFL lineman. Unlike others in here, this one hasn’t made the transition to synthetics work for him.
Who can blame Tiger’s Rock (10) for sneaking on the plane to get out of frozen New York? I lost feelings in my legs just looking at a race in New York this winter. If he wants to win races, he needed to stay where he was at. Dakota Phone (11) has back-to-back heartbreakers, especially in the San Antonio. Last win was a year and a half ago. Bullet work on Tuesday makes me think connections are pressing. Hard for me to back. Up and down winter at Gulfstream ended with smack down by Quality Road in Grade 1 Donn for Delightful Kiss (12). Regardless, he’s a player here. Bob Baffert bred, owns, and trains Misremembered (13). Three consecutive seconds are a concern, plus only try at this distance was a debacle at Del Mar. Can they get it together for a top effort? OH YEAH! Now that Jeranimo’s (14) a graded stakes winner, what do you do for an encore? Got stuck in traffic in the Millions Classic or otherwise this guy is on a three race roll. I’m thinking he’s on a roll.
Post positions are my only concern for the 13 and 14; one or the other will overcome this and become possibly the new “legend” of the Big Cap. Rick’s Picks: 14-6-13-4
I’m heeding Rick’s advice not to forget Loup Breton (6). I’m convinced enough to make him my top play in this race. I agree the race is short on legend material, but a win by as many as eight or nine of these would not be all that shocking.
I also am concerned the outside draw for both Misremembered (13) and Jeranimo (14). I also wonder whose decision it was that led Victor E. to get off Misremembered. Baffert likes for Misremembered to be near the pace, so Garcia will have to hustle him along early to make sure he’s not hung out to dry in the clubhouse turn. Will he still have enough left at the end of 10 furlongs? St. Trinians (2), on the other hand, is much more likely to be positioned well to suit her stalking style. Has the year of fillies and mares rolled over into 2010?
I’m going to play Mast Track (7), Eagle Poise (5), Neko Bay (4), and Tiger’s Rock (10) on my superfecta ticket. The latter three are pedigree plays for me, and Mast Track may get to go along way before real pressure is applied. Bob’s Picks: 6-2-10-5
