Laurie Ross
tracksideview.com

IRON MAIDENS

Sept. 27, 2008 – Santa Anita
Oak Leaf Stakes

One of the toughest races to handicap is a two-year-old maiden race. Trainer stats and workout patterns are helpful, but how do you decide which horses in the field are precocious and suited for the distance and surface? How good is that stallion’s first crop? Leading up to the Breeder’s Cup, I’ll go beyond the stats and decipher the pedigrees with a slant toward handicapping. I’ll give you information on the sire, dam sire, class of the female family and my determination of optimal distance and surface. I’ll make picks based on paper, but I highly suggest before making any bets that you view the horses in the paddock and post parade before parting with your cash. Babies are unpredictable and what looks good on paper can fall apart on the track.

RATINGS:
*   Not optimal for this horse
**  Below average talent
***  Average talent
****    Superior talent
*****  Graded stakes winning talent

Ratings are assigned according to how a horse compares to the rest of the field in a given race. They are based upon pedigree strength, precociousness, surface preferences, speed and stamina influences, and the horse’s works or previous races.

The not-for-profit Oak Tree Meeting at Santa Anita was created in 1969. Having created a race meet but with no place to hold it, the group of horsemen who conceived the idea of the Oak Tree Meeting rented Santa Anita Park. Since its inception, the Oak Tree Association has run a three-month-long meeting with quality stakes races, the West Coast’s answer to the Keeneland Fall Meet.

The list of previous winners of the prestigious Oak Leaf Stakes for fillies reads like a who’s who of racing. D. Wayne Lukas dominates the standings in the Oak Leaf Stakes capturing it a record seven times; Lukas also won three consecutive Oak Leaf renewals from 1994-1996.  Several fillies have used the Oak Leaf Stakes as a springboard to victory in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. For two consecutive years, Halfbridled and Sweet Catomine dominated both races. Landaluce, Serena’s Song, Excellent Meeting, Althea (beating Magic) and Pleasant Stage (winning as a maiden) are just a few of the illustrious fillies who count this race among their many accomplishments.

Oak Leaf Stakes Grade 1
8 Race |1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | Purse: $250,000

WILL O WAY (Broken Vow – Willow Woodman, by Woodman) Sire is ranked 25 on the National Sire List and is a good synthetic track sire. His offspring include Unbridled Belle, Cotton Blossom, precocious Sindy With an S and I Vow to Win, who took the recent Iowa Futurity. Dam sire was a Group 3 winner in Ireland and a versatile sire, getting such winners as 1993 Eclipse Three Year Old champ Hansel, champion European mare Bosra Sham, handicapper Chiseling, and miler sire Hawk Wing. Will O Way is a half sister to multiple graded stakes winner, Willow O Wisp.  This filly appears to have god speed that will carry past a mile.  She finished a willing third the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante while making up ground in the stretch. She had a good (1:00 2/5) five-furlong work on Sept. 20.
Precocity: ****   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***          Route:  ****

STARDOM BOUND (Tapit – My White Corvette, by Tarr Road) Sire won the Grade 2 Laurel Futurity at two and carried his speed 1 1/8 to win the Wood Memorial the following year.  He ranks second on the First Crop Sire List, in part to the earnings of this filly.  Dam sire, a son of the great Grey Dawn, sired two stakes winners from a limited crop.  Dam was a stakes winner and graded stakes placed at two. All four of her foals are winners. Although not considered a RF (Rasmussen Factor – inbreeding to a superior female within five generations) Stardom Bound is inbred in the sixth and fourth generations to the good mare, Reason to Earn, the dam of Bold Reasoning, sire of Seattle Slew. This filly has lots of speed, and should carry it past a mile. She dominated the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutant by four lengths last time out. She’s had two five-furlong works since the race. Note that she is the only filly in the field to receive a 5 star rating.
Precocity: *****   Synthetic: *****
Sprint:  ***            Route:  ****

CANDILEJAS (Candy Ride (ARG) – Delicias Blues, by Grindstone) Sire is currently fifth on the First Crop sire list with 8 winners from 26 starters and his daughter Evita Argentina is his first stakes winner.  Kentucky Derby winning dam sire is a source of stamina. His progeny can win early, but are better as they mature. His offspring include Belmont Stakes winner and young sire, Birdstone, his Grade 1 winning sister and producer, Birdtown, and recent two-year-old stakes placed Frumious. Dam is unraced and this is her first foal. Third dam Charedi is also the dam of Gana Facil, dam of Unbridled, the sire of Grindstone. Others produced by this mare include Unbridled’s full brothers Cahill Road and Pentelicus. Candilejas finished sixth in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in her last start, seven lengths behind Stardom Bound. She’s had a number of races and might not be good enough at this point to compete with the top level, but could improve as a three year old.
Precocity: **   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***     Route:  ****

PALACIO DE AMOR (Dixieland Band – Haitian Vacation, by Petionville) Sire was a winner at age two and is a good synthetic track sire that gets mainly sprinter/milers. Dam sire produces sprinters and is an excellent synthetic track sire. Dam is a stakes winning earner of over $151,000. All of her foals have run. Others produced by this female family include sprinter Snake Proof and Vergennes, winner of the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. Palacio de Amor has brilliant/classic influences of Northern Dancer, as he sired Dixieland Band and Palacio de Amor’s second dam sire, Nijinsky. She tired after setting the pace to finish second behind Stardom bound in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in her last start and had a good 4F work since then.
Precocity: ****   Synthetic: ****
Sprint:  ***          Route:  **** 

MONTANA FIELDS (Pulpit – Exceptionally, by El Prado) World-class sire gets winners on all surfaces and distances. Dam sire, by the great Saddler’s Wells, was a group stakes winner in Ireland. He was North American Leading Sire in 2002 and is a versatile sire. Dam earned over $98,000 and this is her first foal. Dam is a full sister to Grade 2 winner, Swingin on Ice. Montana Fields showed class in a good maiden race, beaten a neck by Stardom bound in her first race, but showed nothing in the Debutante in her last. She’s had two slow four-furlong works since that race.
Precocity: ***   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***        Route:  ****

MAGIC ROBERTA (Elusive Quality – Magic Valentine, by Unbridled) Sire was a Grade 2 and Grade 3 winner and set a world record at one mile on the turf. His runners are effective on all surfaces. Dam sire was the 1990 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Colt whose influence will continue through his classy sons and daughters. Dam is an unraced half sister to Group/Grade 3 winner Penny’s Gold. Third dam, Mrs. Penny was a Group 1 winner and the grand dam of Grade 1 winner Unaccounted For.  Fourth dam is Blue Hen, Tananarive. Magic Roberta is still a maiden, finishing a weakening second going 6F in her second start to Toro Bonito who is entered in this race. She’s had one slow four-furlong work since her race.
Precocity: **   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***     Route:  ***

EMPRESSIVE LADY (Empire Maker – Racey Player, by A.P. Indy) Sire is currently fifteenth on the Second Crop Sire List. He was a winner at two, but his offspring will be better as they mature and this Grade 1 Belmont winner should prove to be a good source of stamina. His offspring are good on synthetics. Dam sire is an international stamina influence and is a good synthetic track producer. Dam is a stakes winning earner of over $123,000. Empressive Lady should be a filly to watch as she gets older and distances increase.  She tired to fifth behind Stardom Bound in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante in her last start while running 3 and 4 wide most of the way. She’s had two steady works since then.
Precocity: **   Synthetic: ****
Sprint:  **       Route:  ****

ORO BLANCO (Hold for Gold – White Angelica, by Quiet American) Sire is an unraced son of Red Ransom. His offspring have won mainly on turf up to a mile. Dam sire produced Kentucky Derby winner, Real Quiet. There is no black type in the first three generations, but this filly has plenty of stamina influences in her pedigree. Oro Blanco, still a maiden, weakened to third in her second race, going 1 mile at Del Mar. She’s had two works since then.
Precocity: **   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  **        Route:  ****

TORO BONITO (El Corredor – Blushing Bull, by In Excess) Miler sire stands fourth on the Third Crop Sire List. He gets precocious miler types and is a known synthetic track producer.  Dam sire is currently the third ranking California sire and his offspring, which include sire Indian Charlie, international turf star Musical Chimes and recent Grade 3 winner Notional, win on all surfaces.  Third dam produced Indian Charlie. Toro Bonito was second to Empressive Lady in her first start and broke her maiden going 6F in her second start, beating Magic Roberta.  She’s had two good stamina works since that start and is from the always dangerous Bob Baffert barn.
Precocity: ***   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***        Route:  ***

BLACK MAGIC MAMA (Black Mambo – Our Dear Helen, by Bates Motel) Sire, a three-quarter brother to Lemon Drop Kid, never won a graded stakes race and he has one winner from five starters. Grade 1 winning dam sire produced durable runners including multiple graded stakes winner Rare Blend. Black Magic Mama is a half sister to the venerable Me My Mine. Dam is a minor stakes winner of over $100,000 in 13 starts and is a half to a minor stakes winner. Black Magic Mama was third in her debut going five-and-a-half furlongs, but was disqualified and placed sixth. A graded stakes race seems beyond her capabilities at this point.
Precocity: **   Synthetic: *** 
Sprint:  ***     Route:  ***

KINESIOLOGY (Dixie Union – Lakeville, by Evansville Slew) Precocious sire won the Grade 2 Norfolk, Grade 3 Best Pal, Hollywood Juvenile Championship, and was second in the Grade 2 Del Mar Futurity and is a good synthetic track sire.  Dam sire won the Arlington-Washington Futurity at age two and he is an excellent synthetic track sire.  His offspring are sprinters.  Dam is a stakes winning earner of $100,775 in 12 starts and this is her first foal. This female family produces mainly sprinters.  Kinesiology has win early speed top and bottom and broke her maiden going one mile on turf after finishing fifth in her debut at five and a half furlongs; however, in that debut she was beaten by Turtle Creek Babe, Stardom Bound and Montana Fields. She deserves another chance on the synthetic track.
Precocity: ***  Synthetic: *** 
Sprint:  ***       Route:  ***

MALUSITA (Pure Prize – Proud Little Phony, by Phone Trick) Sire stands sixth on the Third Crop Sire List.  He has produced talented runners Pure Clan, Cowgirls Don’t Cry and Coronet of a Baron. He only has a 2 percent rate for two-year-old stakes winners, but is considered a decent synthetic surface sire.  His runners generally improve late in their two year old year when running a mile and longer. Dam sire was known for producing speedy precocious babies (Favorite Trick, Phone Chatter and Caller One) and also is a known wet track sire. Cleverly named dam has produced three foals and all three are winners. She is a half sister to one minor stakes placed runner.  This female family is from Chile. After beating Turtle Creek Babe in her debut, Malusita has been ambitiously placed in the Landaluce and Grade 3 Sorrento. She recently finished third, her best finish in a stakes race to date, in the Barrett’s Debutante at Fairplex on dirt.
Precocity: ****   Synthetic: ***
Sprint:  ***          Route:  ***

WHO DO I LIKE?

There is never a sure thing in racing, but if there are no mishaps, STARDOM BOUND should have no problem with the added distance or this field. She is the deserved favorite. So who is the best of the rest?  There are about four or five fillies that are evenly matched and this race would be a good exacta wheel bet.  EMPRESSIVE LADY has the best stamina oriented pedigree in the field. She was three and four wide most of her last race in the Del Mar Debutante. Since that race, she’s had two very solid works. The added distance will suit her.  PALACIO DE AMOR has excellent synthetic track breeding. She held on for second, four-and-a-half lengths ahead of the rest in the Debutante and had a live four-furlongs work last week.  WILL O WAY is another logical contender in here. I don’t like her rail post, but her jockey is skillful enough to save ground on the rail then swing her out when needed. Those are my picks for this race; however, cases can be made for Kinesiology and Toro Bonito. Should either one go off at longer odds, be sure to include them in your picks.