Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview.com

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Kentucky Derby 135 may be one the most hotly contested races in recent years. Anyone of about 9 horses has a legitimate chance at winning the Derby. Morning-line favorite I Want Revenge was scratched early Saturday morning. The top group is made up of Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem and Musket Man.

Dubai invaders Regal Ransom and Desert Party have honest credentials to be in the Derby. Syntheti-track horses such as Hold Me Back and Advice belong, but their dirt performance may be suspect. General Quarters has won on both dirt and synthetic. With his 75-year-old trainer Thomas McCarthy and his one-horse stable, General Quarters is the feel-good story this year.

What follows is a list of the 20 horses with posts, odds and their running styles. I will conclude with what I believe will happen in the race.

1. West Side Bernie (Bernstein) (odds 30-1), trainer Kelly Breen, jockey Stewart Elliott. Was second in the Wood Memorial, but I Want Revenge ran away from him. I think the same thing will happen in the Derby. Colt worked four furlongs in 48.20 on April 25 at Churchill Downs. Closer.

2. Musket Man (Yonaguska) (20-1), Derek Ryan, Eibar Coa. Had back-to-back wins in the Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Race Course on April 4 and the Tampa Bay Derby on March 14. Even with those two wins he’s still under the radar. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:01.60 on April 25 at Churchill Downs. Stalker.

3. Mr. Hot Stuff (Tiznow) (30-1), Eoin Harty, John Velazquez. He was third in both the Sham and Santa Anita Derby. He is another one that comes from the clouds. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:00.40 on April 26 at Santa Anita. He’s never worked at Churchill Downs and in my opinion that’s a negative. Closer.

4. Advice (Chapel Royal) (30-1), Todd Pletcher, Rene Douglas. Jumped into the Derby picture with his win in the Coolmore Lexington on April 18 at Keeneland. All his good races have come on synthetic surfaces. Colt worked four furlongs in 47.20 on April 27 at Churchill Downs. Closer.

5. Hold Me Back (Giant’s Causeway) (15-1), Bill Mott, Kent Desormeaux. Was second in the Blue Grass, but the colt didn’t need to win the race. He is another one  that is suspect on dirt. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:01.60 on April 26 at Churchill Downs. Closer.

6. Friesan Fire (A.P. Indy) (5-1), Larry Jones, Gabriel Saez. Comes into the race off a sharp 57.80 five-furlong work on April 27. He last raced when he won the Louisiana Derby on March 14 at Fair Grounds. This worries some people, not me. Stalk and speed.

7. Papa Clem (Smart Strike) (20-1), Gary Stute, Rafael Bejarano.  Won the Arkansas Derby on April 11 at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. Colt blew out three furlongs in 34 flat on April 30 at Churchill Downs. Speed.

8. Mine that Bird (Birdstone) (501-), Bennie Wooley, Calvin Borel. I usually don’t like to say this, but what the heck is the horse doing in this race. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:02 on April 27. Stalk.

9. Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa) (50-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, Chris DeCarlo. Was second to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 on April 27 at Churchill Downs. Speed.

10. Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor) (30-1), Saeed bin Suroor, Alan Garcia. Won the UAE Derby on March 28 at Nad al Sheba in Dubai and gives Godolphin two threats for the Derby. Colt work five furlongs in 59.20 on April 25 at Churchill Downs and seems to love the track. Speed.

11. Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride) (20-1), Jerry Hollendofer, Mike Smith. He was a game second in the Santa Anita Derby. But out-of-the-cloud closers usually have a tough time at Churchill. Colt worked five furlongs  in 59.20 on April 27 at Churchill Downs. Closer.

12. General Quarters (Sky Mesa) (20-1), Thomas McCarty, Julien Leparoux. Won the Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland on a synthetic track. But we know he can run on dirt with his win at Tampa Bay Downs. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:01.80 on April 23 at Churchill Downs. I have mixed feelings about this one. Closer.

13. I Want Revenge (Stephen Got Even) (3-1), Jeff Mullins, Joe Talamo. Colt worked four furlongs in 47.20 on April 28 at Churchill Downs. Won the Wood Memorial on April 4 after a terrible start. This is a scary colt. Stalk.

14. Atomic Rain (Smart Strike) (50-1), Kelly Breen, Joe Bravo. Colt did his best running as a 2-year-old. If he won it would be an (atomic) bomb. Stalk.

15. Dunkirk (Unbridled’s Song) (4-1), Todd Pletcher, Edgar Prado. He was second in the Florida Derby and picks up Prado for the Derby. I would like to see him a little closer to the pace on Saturday. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:01.05 on April 25 at Palm Meadows in South Florida. He only arrived in Louisville on April 28 and that’s not a plus. Closer.

16. Pioneerof the Nile (Empire Maker) (4-1), Bob Baffert, Garrett Gomez. Won the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Colt worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 on April 27 at Churchill Downs. Has never been that impressive winning, but he keeps doing it. Stalk and can show speed.

17. Summer Bird (Birdstone) (50-1), Tim Ice, Chris Rosier. Was third in the Arkansas Derby, but he was flying at the end. Colt worked six furlongs in 1:15.80 on April 24 at Churchill Downs and some observers didn’t like it. If the pace is fast, he could get a piece. Closer.

18. Nowhere to Hide (Vindication) (50-1), Nick Zito, Shaun Bridgmohan. He was fourth in the Risen Star, Tampa Bay Derby and Illinois Derby. Some owners just want to run their horses in the Derby. Closer.

19. Desert Party (Steet Cry) (15-1), Saeed bin Suroor, Ramon Dominguez. Was second in the UAE Derby by a half-length. I’m still concerned about horses that winter in Dubai. Colt worked five furlongs in 59.60 on April 125at Churchill Downs. Stalk.

20. Flying Private (Fusaichi Pegasus) (50-1), D. Wayne Lukas, Robby Albarado. Was second in the Lane’s End and fifth in the Arkansas Derby. He will try to follow in his father’s footsteps and you never count out Lukas. Stalk.

Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom drew side by side in the gate and everyone perceives them as the speed. I think there will be at least one more speed factor and that will be Friesan Fire. Anything can happen in a 20-horse field and one stumble, slow start or bump can put any horse at a disadvantage no matter what their running style.

Trainer Larry Jones said that he wasn’t going to give any instructions to jockey Gabriel Saez. He was going to let Saez figure out where he wants to be after the break. If Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom get away cleanly and set a decent pace, I think Friesan Fire will set off them. If not, I look for Friesan Fire to be on the lead. Jones has said that a lot of horses will have a hard time catching Friesan Fire if he is left alone.

I expect I Want Revenge, Papa Clem and Pioneerof the Nile to be holding down spot somewhere in the top 10 horses. I don’t expect the first turn to be a problem. The only two horses on the outside with speed will be Pioneerof the Nile and Desert Party and I think their jockeys will use just enough gas to get them over in the first quarter mile.

If Friesan Fire is sitting third or so and clear, I expect him to go when the real running starts past the three-eighths pole. I also expect I Want Revenge, Papa Clem, Dunkirk, Desert Party and Pioneerof the Nile to put in serious bids at this point. I expect Friesan Fire to have enough turn of foot to run away from them and hit the wire first.

I will put the other five in my gimmick bets. In the first Kentucky Derby Futures Pool I got Papa Clem at nearly 50-1, so I’m not going to cry if he wins. If I have to pick a bomber it will be Summer Bird and he will be in my exacta and trifecta.