Bob Hill
and Kat Kubik
Staff writers
Tracksideview.com

The Tracksideview.com handicappers will concentrate on their home track, Arlington Park, this week and offer their opinions on the Secretariat, Beverly D. and Arlington Million, all Grade 1 races. Good luck from Tracksideview.com.

Arlington Park, Race 8 – Secretariat G1, 1 ¼ miles on turf for three-year-olds

Paddy O’Prado (1) is the deserving odds-on favorite in the 34^th running of the Secretariat.  He has dominated the division for three-year-old turfers this year and is versatile enough to have finished third in the Kentucky Derby.  After his sixth place finish in the Preakness his connections wisely sent him back where has won three of six races and has never been off the board on grass.  It sure looks like all systems go to me.  Mister Marti Gras (2) is trained by Chris Block who headquarters his operation at Arlington Park.  This son of Belong to Me finished second behind Working for Hops (7) in the Grade 3 American Derby, the local prep race for the Secretariat.  He certainly could hit the board.

Cherokee Lord (3) has not yet gone beyond a mile so in addition to facing a huge class test this guy has to run four panels further than ever before.  He did run within a couple of lengths of Mister Marti Gras two back, but he is in tall cotton for sure.  Wigmore Hall (4) is an accomplished listed stakes runner in Great Britain where the majority of his success has come running at this distance.  His sire, High Chaparral, was the Breeders’ Cup turf champion twice, and he is not without a chance in this race.  The weather forecast calls for a high of 83 degrees on Saturday, a factor that should help this and all of the European shippers given the many 90-plus degree days that have already occurred at Arlington this summer.  I will use him on my tickets in exotic plays.

Dean’s Kitten (5) finished third in the American Derby but was disqualified for bumping in the stretch run.  He was beaten by three of these in the Colonial Turf Cup two back.  I see the bottom of the exotics as his ceiling.  The scratch of Two Notch Road probably means that Working for Hops will be the lone speed in the race.  Those two set the pace in the Colonial Turf Cup won by Paddy O’Prado two months ago.  Whether or not being the lone speed will allow Working for Hops to hold off Paddy O’Prado is the pace scenario question of the day.  Workin for Hops has won on this course and at this distance.  His trainer is on record of liking his chances in this race if just did not have to beat “that grey monster.”  He is a serious challenger.

I think Paddy O’Prado is the truest favorite in the three big races on Saturday.  The up-front pace of the race could be a little more brisk than what Wigmore Hall is used to, so I have to decide if he will benefit or not from it.  I’ll stick with Working for Hops to get home ahead of him for second place, but I’ll take the British invader for third just ahead of Mister Marti Gras.  Bob’s Picks: 1-7-4-2

I would love to do something interesting and pick a long shot for first, second, or even third, but unsurprisingly I have come to the same conclusions as Bob.  Paddy O’ Prado (1) is simply the best, and I don’t see anyone beating him.  In fact, he could be in the Million and still deserve serious consideration.  Now you can’t dismiss Workin for Hops (7) simply because Paddy beat him at Colonial Downs.  He is at his home track and the trainer’s sole focus is finding a way to be Paddy.  With the scratch of Two Notch Road, only Cherokee Lord (3) will join him up front, and that one probably won’t last much farther than a mile.  If Paddy gets stuck in traffic, Hops could steal it. 

Wigmore Hall (4) also has the ability to threaten Paddy.  He is the shipper from Europe who has beaten older horses in the John Smiths Cup and used his next win as a paid workout for the Secretariat.  He has turned heads here at Arlington in the mornings and will come charging late.  However, he has a tendency to break slowly and the rider might leave him with too much to do.  This is also his first trip out of England, and for a three-year-old it can be a difficult transition. 

Mister Marti Gras (2) will be there hoping someone falters.  He closed well into Hops last time and his trainer says he is better rested for this race.  My concern for him is the probable controlled pace.  Dean’s Kitten (5) will be closing as well and is bred for this distance.  I don’t see him getting higher than fourth.  Kat’s Picks: 1-7-4-2

Arlington Park, Race 9 – Beverly D G1, 1 3/16 miles on turf for fillies and mares three and up

This year’s running of the Beverly D is evenly matched if anything.  I wouldn’t say this is the greatest edition of the race, but for turf females in this country it’s pretty good. 

Tuscan Evening was the best in the country, and the mare that finished second to her in the Modesty will likely be bet down to favoritism.  Éclair de Lune (6) is making her fourth start in this country after narrowly losing a grade three in Europe by three-quarter lengths.  She has needed each of the starts and should be better than ever Saturday.  Hopefully the Modesty took the edge off her so she won’t be rank and will sit behind the leader, Romacaca (8).  The connections of Romacaca have made their intentions clear:  go to the lead and don’t let anyone catch you.  That’s a nice plan, since she is the only speed horse, but this looks too far for her. 

Treat Gently (9) will also be bet down, after back to back graded stakes wins.  She is one of my favorite mares, but her trainer has stated that this race is too far for her and the ground is too hard.  Ave (10) sits at 5-1 off a second in the Dance Smartly.  She has run just three times in the U.S. and was a good third to Rainbow View in the Gallorette, and of course that one would have been the favorite had she not been injured. 

Acoma (3) is currently at a generous 8-1.  She was fourth last time in the Locust Grove, but she has a really good record on turf and I think this is a much better distance for her.  Hot Cha Cha (2) beat that one in the Mint Julep by three-quarter lengths and followed that up with a third in the Modesty.  She was not closing on the top two so perhaps a bit shorter distance is her best.  But she is certainly capable of running with these.  Gypsy’s Warning (4) is kind of an unknown.  She won a grade three in her first U.S. start after leaving South Africa, and was a close fifth behind Ave in the Dance Smartly. 

There are two Europeans in the race: Pachattack (1) and Biased (7).  Biased is not getting much attention even though she has finished just a few lengths back in graded stakes.  It’s not impossible for her to hit the board, but it looks unlikely.  Pachattack is considered more of a threat since she beat Lady Jane Digby who was going to run in the Million.  She has won two listed stakes and seems to be doing well at Arlington. 

This is a tough one, but I think Éclair de Lune will get the win since she seems to be improving and did already run over this surface.  Acoma should close well for second in her third start of the year and her first at a good distance.  Hot Cha Cha and Ave should fight it out for the next spot, with Ave just getting the nod.  Kat’s Picks: 6-3-10-2

The sad fact that Tuscan Evening is absent from this race makes the handicapping quite challenging.  The scratch on Thursday of Rainbow View complicates matter even further.  Because picking winners involves the process of elimination, it becomes enticing to introduce guess work into the equation when overwhelmingly good horses or easy throw-outs don’t show up in the Racing Form.  Such is the case with this year’s Beverly D.

Only three of the 10 entrants in the Beverly D have raced exclusively in the U.S.   Two make their North American debuts, and the other four  have raced on two or more continents in their careers.

Hot Cha Cha (2) and Acoma (3) appear to be the best of the entries that have raced only in North America.  The tough part of the handicapping is that they are virtually indistinguishable.  Both are Grade 3 winners, but I give a slight edge to Hot Cha Cha by virtue of her half-length win against Acoma in June.  Romacaca (8) is stabled at Arlington Park and owns four victories on the course, but she faces huge rise in class.  She probably will be bet far beyond her real chance to score because of her connections.

Pachattack (1) and Biased (7) are the European shippers that will make their first North American starts.  Neither has won a Group (graded) stakes race, although each has won in listed company.  Pachattack comes in off two consecutive victories at Newcastle and Newbury at distances of 10 and 12 furlongs.  Biased won two races back at Longchamp going a mile and an eighth on soft ground in 2:01³.  I will play Pachattack on my ticket somewhere.

Éclair de Lune (6) was beaten by a half length by Tuscan Evening in the Modesty at odds of almost 17-1.  That effort was by far her best in three tries in the U.S.  She owns no graded or group wins.  In this field she is a contender.  Gypsy’s Warning (4) intrigues me on two fronts.  She won at first asking in her U.S. debut in the Grade 3 Eatontown at Monmouth Park.  She was a Group 1 winner in her native South Africa, and her trainer Graham Motion certainly knows how to ready his trainees for big races.  At 10-1, she may offer value at several spots on a ticket.  Treat Gently (9), now the top pick of the odds maker who set the morning line, won a Group 2 and competed very well in Group 1 races in France.  This Bill Mott charge enters off wins in the Grade 2 Shepherd’s Bay and Grade 3 R.G. Dick Memorial in her last two starts.  She looks armed and loaded to me.  Another I place in the very intriguing category is Ave (10).  She was beaten by a nose in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine last month and by one-half length in the Grade 3 Gallerette on Preakness Day at Pimlico.  She was Group 2-placed and won a Group 3 race in her native Great Britain.  She is likely one of the ones. 

Romacaca most likely will set the pace in here, but I think the pace will not be hot – it will be very European in shape.    I am going to play and exacta box of Treat Gently and Ave given their success racing in Europe.  Éclair de Lune and Gypsy’s Warning are my picks for third and fourth, although I will play nearly all the remaining at the bottom of my superfecta.  Bob’s Picks:  10-9-6-4

Arlington Park, Race 10 – Arlington Million G1, 1 ¼ miles for three-year-olds and up

Everyone is missing Tuscan Evening this weekend, but let’s not forget Stotsfold, another who would be running here Saturday.  Stotsfold finished third as my pick last year, and was preparing for another crack at it when he suffered from colic and died on the operating table. 

The success of Stotsfold and Spirit One are proof that the best Europeans aren’t necessarily the best horses in the U.S.  That is important to remember with the three we have Saturday.  Tazeez (9) is considered to be the best European with third place finishes in the Prince of Wales and the Princess of Wales.  His class may well carry him to victory, but this will be his first time out of Europe and he seems to thrive there.  On the other hand, Summit Surge (10) and Debussy (2) are not considered group one caliber horses, but Summit Surge will benefit from the harder tracks in the U.S. and Debussy will love the running style of Americans.  So while they will need to improve in the U.S. to factor, it looks like they will. 

All the talk of Gio Ponti (6) not being as good as he was last year is getting tiring.  No, he doesn’t have many wins this year, but he has been running very good races and has overcome a lot.  You have to excuse his loss after returning from Dubai, simply because it was his first race after Dubai!  In the Man O’ War he narrowly beat a long shot, but overcame a very slow pace and traffic trouble to do so.  He closed so fast in that stretch.  So while I think he is the best horse in the race, the scratch of Marsh Side (the pacesetter) has made his job a lot harder because graded stakes-placed Quite A Handful (5) will be left to set a slow pace.  Tazeez or Debussy may be up near him. 

The Arlington Handicap is considered a key prep, and yet the winner is getting almost no attention.  Rahystrada (7) has improved immensely this year and he is one horse who may not be affected by the pace.  He could improve in his second start at this distance, but he may be better off a layoff.  A win would result in the first female jockey winning the Million and would be the first Grade 1 win for his trainer.  Just As Well (4) was considered the best horse in that race simply because he went wide.  He usually hits the board, but with a slow pace his chances are diminished.  Tajaaweed (8) was also closing quickly and he will sit closer this time.  Who knows if he will be as effective that way, but he certainly looks like a good horse who’s just now reaching his best form.  General Quarters (3) was in the race, but disliked the hard surface.  He wasn’t going to run if there wasn’t rain, but he’s coming anyway. 

I have been back and forth as to whether I should pick Gio Ponti or Rahystrada, but for now I’ve decided that Rahystrada is the perfect horse for a good upset.  Maybe new reports on Friday will change my mind. No doubt Gio Ponti will be breathing down his neck at the wire.  I’ve also decided to let Tazeez beat me, and use the other Euros to fill out the super.  Summit Surge will catch Debussy for third.  Kat’s Picks: 7-6-10-2

I love Gio Ponti (6) and have him on my “favorites of all time” list.  He has a case of seconditis this year, and he presents a higher degree of vulnerability this year compared to 2009 when he won this race.  He most certainly is capable of repeating, but I urge caution against singling him on too many tickets.  In his favor, there are none entered in this field of 10 that has beaten him in the past.  Just As Well (4) was runner-up to him in the Million last year.  That seven-year-old, however, has not won in his last eight starts.  Underneath is where I would play him.

Tazeez (9) exits the Group 2 Princess of Wales and the Group 1 Prince of Wales, races in which he hit the board on both occasions.  The Princess of Wales has proven to be a key race in that winner Sans Frontieres and runner-up Redwood each won their next starts.  Spanish Moon was fourth in that race, finishing behind Tazeez.  I see him as the best of the European shippers and a real threat to Gio Ponti.

Summit Surge (10) has split time racing in Europe and Dubai, most recently winning the Group 2 York Stakes.  He should not be dismissed lightly.  Debussy (2) is the third European shipper.  He owns a Group 2 win in France and was Grade 1 placed in Great Britain.  He finished second to Summit Surge in the York Stakes. 

General Quarters (3) is the biggest question mark on my form.  I saw the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on Derby Day when he loved the soft ground and won by a neck.  I’m left to puzzle over whether or not that win was a fluke, and if it was not was it the product of the soft footing?   I will not let General Quarters beat me on a Pick 4 ticket again, but I’ll admit to being confused about his chances.  Another to which I assign some chance of hitting the board is Rahystrada (7).  He certainly likes the turf course at Arlington Park where he is two for two, and he is in sharp form coming in off his victory in the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap last month.  He is a definite play on my longer tickets.

Tajaweed (8) is a lightly raced five-year-old that might sneak onto the bottom of your superfecta ticket.  He certainly has competed in strong company, but he will need a breakout performance to get more than a tiny share.  Quite a Handful (5) is a local horse that is in very deep water here.  I am going to pick Tazeez to win the Arlington Million in a photo finish with Gio Ponti.  Summit Surge is my pick for third, followed by Rahystrada in fourth.  Bob’s Picks:   9-6-10-7.