Kat Kubik,
Bob Hill
and Rick Francis
Staff writers
Tracksideview.com

The Tracksideview handicappers will stay in upstate New York and give their picks for the Forego and Woodward, both Grade 1s, at Saratoga Race Course. Good luck with all your selections.

Saratoga, Race 9 – Forego G1, 7 furlongs for three-year-olds and up

The only thing missing in the Grade 1 Forego is the presence of Majestic Perfection.  The recent winner of the Grade 1 A.G. Vanderbilt is not entered in the Forego, but runners-up Big Drama (3) and Bribon (2) are.  Additionally, Vineyard Haven (1) is in this field.  That trio, along with several very solid sprinters suggests that this will be an interesting race to watch and on which to wager.

Vineyard Haven and Checklist (9) appear to be the ones to provide the pace.  Vineyard Haven should be just fine regardless of the moisture level of the main track, and he has won from off the pace as well as from on it, suggesting that he is the one to beat.  Checklist has not won at seven furlongs, and you really have to wonder if dueling Vineyard Haven will produce good results for him.  Bribon, on the other hand, will love it if the leaders get suicidal on the lead.  He is a stone cold closer that will benefit from fast fractions.  Giralamo (1a) is the paired entry with Vineyard Haven.  We have not seen him since last year’s ill-fated run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.  He probably will need a race before taking his place among this group.

Big Drama will try to settle close to the pace and make his move when the opportunity presents itself.  He is a real gritty horse that typically runs a good race, and I think he is Vineyard Haven’s greatest threat.  Here Comes Ben (4) has posted two very nice Beyer figures in his most recent races at Churchill sprinting at this distance.  He, too, will stalk the pace from mid-pack.  The class rise is his greatest challenge.  Charitable Man (5) stays sprinting for new trainer Anthony Dutrow after routing for much of 2009.  He did run a good race at this distance as a two-year-old, so he is worth a second look.  Omniscient (6) will turn back from three route races to this sprint distance.  His connections must believe that his recent success going two turns will translate to improved performance here.  I don’t think it is impossible, but I’m not going to wager much on the notion.

Starforaday (7) has run often at this tricky distance but shows only one win when doing so.  He faces a major class test as well.  Warrior’s Reward (8) offer the exact opposite set of credentials as he has run some of his best races at this distance.  He won the Grade 1 Carter this year at Aqueduct, beating Musket Man and Munnings.  He is another closer that could be around at the end.  You and I Forever (10) completes the field of eleven (ten entries).  He has competed in Grade 3 company, but he has found the higher levels much tougher.

Godolphin has had a great deal of success at Saratoga in recent years, especially in the second part of the meet.  Vineyard Haven looks like he is ready for a big race, and he is my pick.  Big Drama, Bribon, and Warrior’s Reward should be left to battle for second place.  I’m going to take a shot with Big Drama second and Warrior’s Reward third.  Bob’s Picks:  1-3-8-2

Bribon (2) – Multiple graded stakes winner continues to put up good numbers at the age of seven. Think this distance is right for him, but has yet to find Saratoga’s winner’s circle over his lengthy career. Going to be tough to find it today. Vineyard Haven (1) – Impressive win back in July had connections pointing squarely to this race. Loves this track, loves this distance. Very formidable. Girolamo (1a) hasn’t been seen since Breeders Cup Classic. At least he’s back.  Zenyatta’s sent many into permanent retirement.  Race here last year, just a second off stakes record.  A couple of bullets in August tell me he hasn’t forgotten fast. They better not let this one get loose for long.

Big Drama (3) – 12 for 14 in the money with eight wins. Last three races were shorter, but this son of Montbrook is coming into his skin now. He’s going to be real tough.  Here Comes Ben (4) – Escalating Beyers in last two have the Chase family and trainer Charlie Lopresti feeling good about their colt’s first graded stakes try. Couldn’t have found a softer spot, cause that’s what he’s been running in. Tough call here.  Charitable Man (5) – Cutting back to sprints after so-so three year old campaign. Second start of the year; prefer to wait for third start. Not today.

Omniscient (6) – Back to back wins going longer, and now the cut back. This is not that bad of a spot for this one. Going to be close in front, but don’t overlook the jock/trainer angle here. When Asmussen enlists Calvin Borel, they win at 35 percent or better.  Starforaday (7) – Unlike the other seven year old entered here, this one’s graded stakes window is closing.  Warrior’s Reward (8) did a bang up job to score win in the Grade 1 Carter.  Just missed next out at same distance in Grade 2 Churchill. This is his distance, plus there’s no Quality Road. Playable.

In a tough race named after an even tougher racehorse I like Vineyard Haven to hold off Warrior’s Reward, Big Drama and Bribon. Any could win it, so think about boxing your exotics plays.  Rick’s Picks: 1-8-3-2

The Forego has come up very strong this year, with five of the 10 horses having an excellent shot at winning.  The 2 coupled horses are the narrow early favorites.  Vineyard Haven (1) has finished first in 4 Grade 1 races and his front-running win last out sets him up well for this.  However, he loves the slop, and he won’t get it Saturday.  Girolamo (1a) has been promising for a long time, with his best races around this distance.  He runs well off a layoff, but it has been almost a year since he’s last run and this is stiff competition. 

Bribon (2) is one of the best closers in the race, with a win in a Grade 2 and a third in a Grade 1 this year.  This is a good distance, and he did beat Vineyard Haven at a mile.  Big Drama (3) will sit just off the speed, which could be a perfect setup.  He was second in the Vanderbilt at 6 furlongs, and this should suit him better.  Warrior’s Reward (8) is the last of the Big 5.  He will hope for a fast pace to close into.  His best race this year was at 7 furlongs in the Carter, in which he beat Musket Man and Munnings.  He is also good off a layoff, so watch out. 

Here Comes Ben (4) has won three in a row at 7 furlongs against lesser competition.  Charitable Man (5) was a star at 3 and will need to improve a lot from his first start this year.  Omniscient (6) and You and I Forever (10) have been better at longer distances.  Starforaday (7) doesn’t seem to up to this level, and Checklist (9) may scratch if trainer Todd Pletcher doesn’t think he can make the lead.

I am going with Big Drama, for the very minor upset at 4-1.  Since the track will be fast and he is versatile enough to sit behind the leader he may be able to turn the tables.  Vineyard Haven will hold determinedly for second with the closers, Warrior’s Reward and Bribon, filling out the super.  Kat’s Picks: 3-1-8-2

Saratoga, Race 10 – Woodward G1, 1 1/8 miles for three-year-olds and up

Quality Road (3) lost his last race, but that shouldn’t make anyone hesitate to pick him today.  Today, there’s not only no Blame, but the distance is shorter.  I think 1¼ is too far for him and we will see the real Quality Road this time at 1 1/8.  The real race is for second, since none of the other six horses stand above the rest.

Mythical Power (7) will take some money because he’s trained by Bob Baffert.  This horse likes regular dirt tracks and has hit the board in several graded stakes, but his best races have come at shorter distances.  Arcodoro (4) may also be given a chance by bettors because he is the speed of the race and last weekend Saratoga was very speed favoring.  However, he has never faced this type of competition and he will have Quality Road right behind him ready to pounce.  Many will root for Mine That Bird (2), who gets blinkers and a new jockey for the race.  Expect him to sit closer to the pace than he was in his last race.  He’s a long shot to win, but he’s as good as the rest. 

Convocation (1) was fourth to Quality Road in the Met Mile and second to Haynesfield in the Suburban before winning an optional claiming as his prep for this.  Tranquil Manner (6) also won an optional claiming in preparation for this race, but so far has been mostly a good allowance horse.  He is out of Composure, a multiple grade one winning mare.  Indian Dance (5) has done all his winning at Laurel and he has his work cut out for him.

Quality Road is my winner, and I think Convocation will be good enough for second with all his stakes experience.  Mine That Bird will hopefully run his race to get third, with Mythical Power managing fourth.  Kat’s Picks: 3-1-2-7

Convocation (1) has really closed well at this distance in last two, including place finish in G2 Suburban. Running down the big gun here, well, that’s a different story.  Mine That Bird (2) – Okay jockey change, maybe. There’s bigger issues here – trainer, owners, etc. You know, it just may be the horse. Some get better with age, some don’t. He will always be a Kentucky Derby winner.  When has that not become enough?  Take nothing away from Blame, but Quality Road (3) shouldn’t have lost the Whitney. I’m probably the only person on the planet that feels he got a Smarty Jones/Belmont Stakes type of ride. Sorry Johnny V. That won’t happen today. He’s your single in the late Pick 4.

Arcodoro (4) won at large odds last out here at this route; same odds today, different results.  One day, just not today.  Indian Dance (5) – Every horse here comes from quality sires.  Indian Charlie offspring, they’re the ones that can blow a race up.  Won’t say it’ll be this one’s time, but keeping in my exotics. Tranquil Manner (6) – Once this guy broke his maiden he’s been a beast on the allowance circuit.  Don’t see it.   Mythical Power (7) – Don’t let this guy’s bankroll fool you. There are still some places where money grows on trees; that place is Texas. This ain’t Texas. Sorry.

One horse race.  Jockey John Velazquez, look in your rear view mirror and race with no forgiveness. Rick’s Picks:  3-1-5-2

I’ll tell you how bad the field is for the 57^th running of the Woodward – Mine That Bird actually might hit the board.  There are three horses that have won a graded stakes entered here.  Quality Road (3) has won at multiple levels and various distances, posting Beyer figures that suggest that he will overwhelm this sad bunch at odds of 1-9.  The weather forecast is predominantly dry for the weekend at the Spa, so the connections of Quality Road must like their chances of avoiding a wet track.  Mine That Bird (2) has not hit the board since the West Virginia Derby last year.  He is becoming the poster child for “one hit wonder” Kentucky Derby winners.  Mythical Power (7) has two Grade 3 wins at Lone Star at distances shorter than the nine furlongs of the Woodward.  He’s one for seven on the synthetics in California.

Convocation (1) hit the board in the Grade 2 Suburban and Grade 3 Westchester.  At 6-1 he is the second betting favorite on the morning line.  He’ll probably finish second or third.  Mine That Bird is next on the odds list at 10-1.  Who knows what he will do? Arcodoro (4) is eligible for non-winners of two allowance races and would be better off there.  Indian Dance (5), at odds of 20-1 is as good as any in here not named Quality Road.  So is Tranquil Humor (6) at odds of 15-1 and the aforementioned Mythical Power.

After Quality Road, I shook peas out of the cup for the other three spots.  The order of finish came out Quality Road, Convocation, Mythical Power, and Indian Dance.  Bob Picks:  3-1-7-5