King’s Bishop, Travers in the East and Pacific Classic in the West
Aug 27th, 2010 | By admin | Category: Picking WinnersKat Kubik,
Rick Francis
and Bob Hill
Staff writers
The Tracksideview.com handicappers are going “coastal” again this week with suggestions for the King’s Bishop and Travers at Saratoga Race Course in upstate New York and the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in Southern California. Good luck with your picks.
Saratoga, Race 11 – King’s Bishop G1, 7 furlongs for three-year-olds
Latigo Shore (1) – For connections this high-dollar Malibu Moon colt just hasn’t lived up to expectations. Amsterdam effort shows that he improved his position – what to only lose by 11-plus lengths. Would be a major upset. Hurricane Ike (2) – In the midst of hurricane season look who shows up. Been away awhile, but is putting together some solid workouts. Threw the whole synthetics to dirt theory out the window, as his last two dirt tries have been the best of his career. We know what we’re going to get from a few of these. He’s the scary unknown. D’Funnybone (3) – The only thing missing from his 7 furlong resume is the Grade 1 trophy. Others here will try and make him the pacesetter; be careful what you wish for. Jockey Edgar Prado will settle him no farther off than the leader’s saddle and close with abandon. This is his distance; this is his race.
Discreetly Mine (4) – Think this son of Mineshaft is really starting to find his true calling distance wise. Now if his connections can find his true calling competition wise he’ll be a beast. Does he have the tools to turn the tables on D’bone? Sure he does. Don’t think it’s here and now. Second best. Bulldogger (5) – Strong win here two weeks ago at three-quarters has connections going with the strike while the iron is hot angle. Ambitious step up has trainer Bob Baffert calling on new number one jock Martin Garcia to help this one start paying dividends. Got his hands full to the inside. Bank Merger (6) – 2 for 2 sprinting shorter against allowance company. His sire Consolidator’s best wins came at a mile and sixteenth. Just like most bank merger’s, late blooming three year olds are scary. In Jack’s Memory (7) – We all know trainer Eric Gulliot’s propensity for Champagne (d’ORO) and short pants, but neither is going to make this one fast enough to catch this group.
With Grade 1 sprint races getting harder to find each year this is the big one. That fact hasn’t escaped trainer Rick Dutrow and owner Paul Pompa. Don’t think D’Funnybone disappoints. Discreetly Mine will find a myriad of races up to a mile-and-a-sixteenth to add to his bankroll, but the best he gets today is a place check. Cajun jockey Calvin Borel brings the Hurricane to upstate but just misses. Bulldogger rounds out the exotics. Rick’s Picks: 3-4-2-5.
The King’s Bishop contains two of our best sprinters along with a bunch of newcomers. Discreetly Mine (4) enters the race as the favorite off an 8¾-length win in the Amsterdam and a win in the Jersey Shore before that. He seems to have reached a new level in the last few months, but in June he was soundly beaten by the other top contender today, D’Funnybone (3). That one was second at a mile in his last race and has received a freshener for this. He runs well off a layoff, loves this distance, and has beaten the favorite twice. He is my choice.
Bulldogger (5) is one newcomer to watch. He likes the lead, which could be a problem in this race, but he is 2 for 3 for Baffert. His allowance win at this track was very impressive. Bank Merger (6) will make his third start for Kiaran McLaughlin. He is unbeaten and his last race was also at Saratoga in an allowance. The rest of the field contains In Jack’s Memory (7), who was third in the Amsterdam behind Discreetly Mine, and Latigo Shore (1), who was fourth in that race. Also, Hurricane Ike (2) makes his first start since taking the Derby Trial at Churchill on the slop.
I prefer D’Funnybone for the win over Discreetly Mine. Bulldogger should edge Bank Merger for the third spot. Kat’s Picks: 3-4-5-6
I see this race pretty much the same way that Rick and Kat described it. I just think D’Funnybone (3) owns this distance, but it is risky to ignore the improvement Discreetly Mine (4) has shown sprinting, plus he is 3 for 3 at the Spa. That said, I’m going to try to get a little value on my exotics ticket by taking Bank Merger (6) to get up for the place, edging out Discreetly Mine. There will be plenty of speed up front to set up his late run. Bulldogger (5) should have enough left to hang on to the bottom spot in the superfecta. Bob’s Picks: 3-6-4-5
Saratoga, Race 12 – Travers G1, 1¼ miles for three-year-olds
The field for the Travers contains most of the best three-year-olds in the country, with the exception of Lookin At Lucky. Super Saver (11) is the best known, after his Kentucky Derby victory, but he has not been getting much respect lately. He had a break after the Preakness and ran a dull fourth in the Haskell. He really needed that race, and I think we will see a much improved Super Saver Saturday. The up-and-comer, Trappe Shot (2) is short-priced and will be seeking his fifth win from seven starts. He was second in the Haskell after a so-so trip and many still think he could be something special. A Little Warm (5) probably looks the best on paper coming into the race with a win in the Jim Dandy. Dutrow is very confident, but I think the Haskell was a better race than the Jim Dandy.
The pace should be fast and it will be set by the “newly-blinkered” First Dude (4). He is a huge horse, the kind that should be filling out right about now and I think he could go all the way. The one horse who could get in the way of that is Miner’s Reserve (1). He finished second to A Little Warm twice but I’m not sure about the distance. There is talk that he may be scratched, so that is something to keep in mind. I also have to mention the maiden winner Admiral Alex (3). His trainer and jockey are extremely enthused about this horse and expect him to win. He had some trouble getting to the track, but the plan has been to run once and go to the Travers. It should be interesting to see if the hype is deserved.
Others from the Jim Dandy are: Afleet Express (7), who was third, Friend Or Foe (9), who was fourth, and Fly Down (8), who was fifth. Others from the Haskell are: Afleet Again (5), who was fifth, and Ice Box (6) who was sixth.
I will take First Dude to go all the way, with Super Saver getting second. Trappe Shot gets third, followed by A Little Warm. Kat’s Picks: 4-11-2-5
Am I the only one that notices that when Super Saver (11) won the Kentucky Derby he did so by closing from off the pace. So his connections put him back up close to the pace in the Preakness and the Haskell and he gets scorched. He is ridden by one of the best judges of pace in the game. If he’s within two lengths of the leaders after six furlongs he’ll be lucky to get in the superfecta. A little further back and he’ll be in the mix. For me, this is now or never. One that is quite good at stalking the pace is A Little Warm (5). Miner’s Reserve (1) and First Dude (4) should provide plenty of it in the Travers. I’m afraid that Miner’s Reserve may not make the 10 furlongs with what he’ll need to hold off the closers. First Dude is a much harder call, but I’m going to steer clear because I have the feeling he may be more over-raced than some in here.
Trappe Shot (2) has become one of the wise guy horses in the Travers. He, too, should benefit from the early fractions. I don’t think he will win, but I do think he may hit the board. Then there is Ice Box (6). Just about everybody I know felt he ran the best of all of them in the Derby. Then he bombed in the Preakness and the Haskell. I cannot recommend him for more than a small slice.
Admiral Alex (3) has attracted a great deal of attention for his maiden-breaker on the last day of July. If moving from a MSW to a Grade 1 is an angle you like, be my guest. I cannot go there. Afleet Again (10) ran to his 19-1 odds in the Haskell. I’m not sold. Afleet Express (7) looks like the best of the sons of Afleet Alex in the Travers. He finished third in the Jim Dandy last out and should handle the pace scenario fine. Hits the board. Fly Down (8) certainly could improve off his effort in the Jim Dandy. We know he will get the distance based on his second place finish in the Belmont. I like his chances to cash a very nice check. Friend Or Foe (9) is a New York-bred that won his first three starts before running very competitively in the Jim Dandy. There’s no reason to keep him off your deepest tickets.
I have liked A Little Warm since I first saw him run last winter. I think he has become second best in the division, and a win here will enhance his status even further. I like Fly Down to get up for second as the pacesetters fade in the final furlong. Afleet Express is my pick for third, and I’ll be sentimental and take Super Saver for fourth. Bob’s Picks: 5-8-7-11.
Miner’s Reserve (1) – Trainer Nick Zito and jock David Cohen know they don’t need the lead going into turn one, but horse doesn’t know it. Many in this group will pass him at the quarter-pole. Trappe Shot (2) wouldn’t have caught Lucky in the Haskell, even if it was a match race. Son of Tapit knows how to rate and that gives him a big edge. First of many to be real close at the wire. Admiral Alex (3) – Hall of Fame jock Kent Desormeaux and owner/trainer Leon Blusiewicz will need the support of three famous icons to pull off this upset. The Father, The Son and The Holy Ghost. Not today, and hope for no penance.
First Dude (4) – Where optimism abounded after Preakness his ugly brother disappointment showed up in the Belmont and the Haskell. We know a Belmont type of effort wins this. Remember, he’s only won a maiden race. Hope the first blinkers is not a sign of desperation. I’m keeping him in the mix. A Little Warm (5) – Connections in the camp are feeling pretty good about the way things are shaping up for this youngster. The only one that doesn’t seem to have issues. Seven straight win or place finishes have me feeling good about his chances. Ice Box (6) – Kentucky Derby effort has taken its toll on this guy. Hate to cut him short, but think the mint julep hangover continues.
Afleet Express (7) – Grade 3 Pegasus win put him on the stage. Jim Dandy was his exit stage door right. Look, don’t ignore the trainer/jock angle here. J.J. Castellano and trainer James Jerkens are hitting in the 30 percent range. Fly Down (8) – Trainer Nick Zito’s best chance of his three entries. Sharp workouts aside, his brief race history is the key. He’s followed a subpar performance with two solid efforts. Jim Dandy was his subpar try. I look for him to move forward. Friend Or Foe (9) – So he galloped out real well and caught up to the winner after his last loss. That kind of statement throws handicapping on its ear. Stupid me, I didn’t know there was a payout for that kind of effort.
Afleet Again (10) – This son of Afleet Alex has past performances littered with the word “wide.” Heck, his win in the Grade 3 Withers was five wide, and that will continue today. Super Saver (11) – Rumor has it trainer Todd Pletcher gave out sunglasses after Kentucky Derby win cause the future was so bright. That race is becoming a curse. Okay, I know he stumbled in the Haskell, but he had time to recover. NO MORE EXCUSES! Win or a neck loss. Anything less, it’s off to the breeding shed.
The only certainty about this crop of three year olds is uncertainty. First Dude scares me, but not enough to pick him to win but enough to be a factor. Nevermind, I’m picking him to beat A Little Warm at the wire. The Super and Fly Down pick up the exotics. Rick’s Picks: 4-5-8-11
Del Mar, Race 8 – Pacific Classic, 1¼ miles for three-years-old and up
The Pacific Classic lacks a true star, but makes up for it with a field of good horses, each capable of pulling off a win. The favorite, The Usual Q.T. (10), has won a lot of races, but they were all on turf. He is 0 for 5 on synthetic, but his trainer believes he is a better horse now, and more willing to settle. Richard’s Kid (6) won this last year and has won once since then. Baffert will have him peaking for this race, and he has been facing excellent company over the past year. Awesome Gem (9) doesn’t win that often, but he is never far behind the best horses in the country. He notched his first Grade 1 win in the Hollywood Gold Cup last month over Rail Trip, but Del Mar is not his favorite surface.
We have three horses that ran in the San Diego: Dakota Phone (3), who won, Battle of Hastings (1), who was second, and Isle of Giants (2), who was fourth. That was Dakota Phone’s first win since November 2008. But he has run very well in many graded stakes in California and can always be counted on to give his all. The San Diego was Battle of Hastings’s first start on synthetic and he could improve off that narrow loss. Isle of Giants is a Giant’s Causeway colt so it has taken him a long time to put the pieces together. He will likely go to the lead and with other speed in the race this will be a big test for him.
Temple City (4) will be the other speed. He won the Cougar over Unusual Suspect and Richard’s Kid and narrowly lost the American Handicap before that. He seems like a new horse this year, but this is still going to be a big step up. Unusual Suspect (5) will be making his 51st start and will need a fast pace to run into to have a chance. He is cross-entered. Hold Me Back (7) is best known for winning the Lane’s End on his way to running 12th in the Derby. He loves synthetics and he seems to be rounding back into form. His trainer reports he has gained 75 pound since April and has really filled into his large frame. Crowded House (8) was a grade one winner in Europe and was fourth in the Eddie Read on the turf in his first N.A. start. He may love this surface and distance.
Any number of these could be win this race, but I am going with Hold Me Back, who should get nice long odds. He wouldn’t be here if his connections didn’t think he had a chance, and the horse is looking super for this. Richard’s Kid has to be respected, and I think Baffert has him ready for a huge race. He’ll get second. Awesome Gem is doing great right now and with enough speed he should be coming – as always. I will go with another long shot, Crowded House, for fourth. I think he will like this added distance and the U.S. could be just what he’s needed. I will let The Usual Q.T. beat me. I just want to see one good race off turf before I’m a believer. Kat’s Picks: 7-6-9-8
Like Kat, I’m going to play against The Usual Q.T.(10), but I am going to put him on the ticket. He is just too tough for me to leave him off completely. Richard’s Kid (6) seems to be rounding back into form after his trip to Dubai and is the reigning champ of this race. I certainly like his chances again this year. It took the connections of Battle of Hastings (1) a long time to get him on synthetics, but he did just fine in the Grade 2 Sand Diego. He has always competed with the West Coast’ best on grass and has often come close to beating The Usual Q.T. I think he deserves a long look.
As Kat points out, Hold Me Back (7) is a special horse on synthetics. He most recently won on that surface at Woodbine. I agree that he is dangerous, but I’m not ready to pick him to win. Temple City (4) intrigues me because he will be on the lead, and if they let him get away soft he could surely surprise. Any of the others could land a small share, but the ones I’ve mentioned appear to me to have the best shot.
I like Richard’s Kid to repeat in the Pacific Classic, finishing ahead of The Usual Q.T., Hold Me Back, and Battle of Hastings. Bob’s Picks: 6-10-7-1

