By Kat Kubik
and Bob Hill
Staff writers

Race 9 Monmouth Park – The Monmouth, 1-1/8 mile on turf for three year olds and up

This is the race that Monmouth Park carded to attract Big Brown one more time.  I wrote an article in August in which I was critical of the connections of Big Brown (4) for going this route in preparing for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and I kidded about the likely lack of quality in the field.  The presence of Shakis (3) and Proudinsky (6), legitimate Grade 2 grass horses, makes Saturday’s race a genuinely good test for this year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner.

Nightscape (1) appears badly overmatched here.  Hotstufanthensome (2) has competed in two straight Grade 3 races on the lawn at Monmouth, but the quality of this field suggests he is in for a class test.  The aforementioned Shakis comes in off his win in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch at Saratoga.  The last two editions of the Baruch are his only wins in 13 months, but he is in form and dangerous.  Big Brown broke his maiden in scintillating style more than a year ago on the grass at Saratoga, but he has not run on the surface since then.  He did demonstrate the ability to win in the Haskell without running away from the competition before the stretch run.  It would be foolhardy to take him lightly.

Kiss the Kid (5) has competed in nice company, but I think a slice is his upper limit.  Proudinsky competes consistently in graded company, and a better trip than his most recent in the Baruch could put him right there.  Drum Major (7) also exits the Baruch, his first start after a year on the bench.  He may scratch from this race, but if he is in he is dangerous.  Get Serious (8) and Ballonenostrikes (10) are in the company of Kiss the Kid at the bottom of the ticket for a piece.  Fagedaboutit Sal (9) ran one nice race on the Monmouth grass three back, but he is another that may be in a little deep.

Although eight years old, Silver Tree (11) is still a dangerous competitor.  He has finished in the money in 70 percent of his lifetime starts.  Proudinsky gets up for the win here, edging Big Brown and Drum Major.  Take your pick between Shakis and Silver Tree for the fourth spot in the superfecta.  Bob’s Picks:  6-4-7-11.

I don’t think this is the field that IEAH Stable had in mind when they had this race created.  Big Brown (4) faces a strong field of experienced turf horses and he will have his work cut out for him.  However, if he can stay clear of traffic problems, he seems to be well-suited for the turf.  He broke his maiden by eleven on the turf and until he developed a quarter crack, he was being pointed to the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf.

Drum Major (7) should be able to improve off of the Baruch, and that will put him as a leading contender.  The turf course may be less than firm on Saturday and that will be no problem for Proudinsky (6).  He has won on good and yielding turf, and has shown the ability to run with these.  Kiss the Kid (5) usually runs a good race.  He may be the speed, and he may hold on for a piece of it.  Kat’s picks: 4-7-6-5

Race 9, Belmont Park – The Gazelle Grade 1, 1-1/8 mile on dirt for three year old fillies

Only four are entered to challenge the standout in this field, Music Note (5).  In her last start, Music Note battled nostril to nostril down the lane with Proud Spell in one of the great races of the summer.  Unless that stretch run took too much out of her, she should romp against this group.  Awesome I Am (1) is exiting allowance-company in preparation for this Grade 1 test.  Hamsa (2) finished eight lengths behind Music Note in the Mother Goose in June, and followed up with a second place finish in an optional claimer at Saratoga.

Country Star (3), trained by Bobby Frankel, went to the bench after middling finishes in the Grade 1 Ashland and Kentucky Oaks, and returned with a win on the grass in an optional claimer at Saratoga.  She will have to be much better than she has been recently to take the top prize in this one, although it is easy to make the case that she could be second best.  Mega (4) has one win, and that was in a maiden-claiming race.  Bob’s Picks:  5-3-2.

As the second best three-year-old filly of 2008, Music Note (5) towers over this field.  It would be a shock if she were beaten despite her grueling effort in the Alabama.  Country Star (3) was one of the best two-year-old fillies last year, but she has not shown that form for quite a while.  She did win at a mile on the turf last out and she should appreciate the straightaway route.  Hamsa (2) is a nice filly that could be ready for a breakout performance.  She is trained by Barclay Tagg and owned by Lael Stable.   Kat’s picks: 5-2-3.

Race 10, Arlington Park – Arlington-Washington Futurity G3 at 1 mile for two year olds

This year’s edition of the Arlington-Washington Futurity is a wide open affair, with many of the fourteen entries having a legitimate chance.  The two favorites may be My Dominick James (8) and Capt. Candyman Can (12).  My Dominick James is one of only two stakes winners in the field, along with Terrain (10), and he has won all three of his starts easily.  He will stretch out from 6 furlongs to a mile.  Capt. Candyman Can has only one race to his credit, which was a seven-length win at Saratoga at odds of 19-1.  However, that race was just five-and-a-half furlongs and he will be trying Polytrack for the first time. 

However, with many other nice colts at double-digit odds, I am going to leave out the two favorites.  Advice (11) will not exactly be a longshot, but I like him to win.  After his impressive maiden win in July, I said that he would win the Arlington Futurity.  He has not run since then, but he has been working well and he has a win over the track at the mile distance.  That should be a huge advantage for him. 

Jose Adan (6) has gotten a lot of attention around Arlington Park.  He is undefeated in two starts, with his most recent being a tough win in an optional-claiming event over Malibu Maverick.  His morning line odds are 12-1 but unfortunately they will go down by post time.  He is trained and owned by Wayne Catalano.  Ready Racer (2) is an intriguing colt.  He is by More Than Ready, and out of Freefourracing who is an English Group I winner.  He broke his maiden in his second try and was caught late by Colonel Rutledge in the James C. Ellis Juvenile Stakes.  His Greatness (4) is a gorgeous horse that took down a solid field to break his maiden in his first try despite being boxed in and bleeding.  He will have to improve, but he will receive Lasix this time, so if he can get a decent trip he could run big at a price.  Like most of these, he will be trying a route for the first time.

Giant Oak (13) has a win at a mile on the turf and he is a full sibling to Illinois stakes winner Apple Martini.  Investor (14) also has a win at the distance, but he will have to overcome such a wide post.  Malibu Maverick (5) has been improving with every start and he will be part of the speed.  Schleprock(9) is the most experienced, with four starts, and Willie to To (1), My Man Moran(3), and Zion (7) complete the field.   Kat’s picks: 11-6-2-4.

When handicapping two-year-old stakes races I generally start by looking for dominating youngsters that tower over their peers at this point or ones that are going to take a big jump forward in this their next race.  Capt. Candyman Can (12) and My Dominick James (8) seem to fit the bill best in this first category – those that already have shown signs of dominance. 

It looks to me as though His Greatness (4), Advice (11), and Giant Oak (13) are the most likely ones to show rapid improvement from their earlier races to this one.  In addition to the five I have just mentioned, I am adding Jose Adan (6) to the list of ones to consider, as I believe the winner will come from among these six horses.

I actually would be a little more excited about His Greatness if he had not worked five furlongs in just over 46 seconds on Tuesday of this week.  The first-time Lasix and troubled trip in his previous race call to me to key on His Greatness, but that bullet work causes me to pause.  I agree with Kat that Advice looks very strong in this spot coming off his maiden-breaker at the distance on this surface.

I am very anxious to see how the offspring of Candy Ride fare this year, and if his maiden race is any indication at all of his talent, Capt. Candyman Can could be very special.  Street Sense proved that a horse does not have to win this race to go on to bigger and better things.

I’m guessing that My Dominick James is going to be a very good Midwest sprinter.  He may make the distance of the flat mile on Saturday, but I am going to bet against his doing so.  Ordinarily, the far outside draw for Giant Oak would concern me, but his guy came from far back in his maiden win on the grass, so he should be able to slide to the rail at the start of the race and save ground.  He technically is an Illinois-bred, but as we all know his sire Giant’s Causeway has produced some terrific horses that do well on all surfaces.  Jose Adan is not without a chance in this race, but I think he will have to wait for state-bred company to be a dominant horse.  Bob’s Picks:  11-13-12-4.