Picking Winners – Aug. 14
Aug 14th, 2010 | By Ron Correll | Category: Picking WinnersKat Kubik,
Bob Hill
and Rick Francis
Staff writers
The Tracksideview.com handicappers are going coast to coast this Saturday with the Sword Dancer at the Spa in upstate New York and the La Jolla at Del Mar in Southern California. Also on the West Coast, check out Ron Correll’s John C. Mabee picks at Del Mar on Sunday.
Race 10, Saratoga – Sword Dancer G1, 1 ½ miles on turf for three-year-olds and up
Sword Dancer lost the 1959 Kentucky Derby by a nose and then went on to win the Belmont Stakes. He won 15 races in his career, many of them at today’s Grade 1 status. He just never won on the turf. I guess they had to name a race after him, but a turf race?
Marlang (1) is a last out winner at this distance; led wire to wire in Grade 3 Sunset at Hollywood. Makes third start for trainer Neil Drysdale who got out of this son of Langfuhr a career best Beyer. This is my concern. Shipped from L.A. this week off career best. I’m getting tired just thinking about it. Romp (2) – I know trainer Jonathan Sheppard does moderately well with these types, but this one got on the plane by mistake. Interpatation (3) won the Grade 1 Turf Classic and an invite to the Japan Cup. Just like every American horse that ran in that race, too much Vodka. Hasn’t been right since. Can’t see it changing today.
Expansion (4) – a couple of show finishes in last two against this country’s best turfers gives the West family hope for this one’s first Grade 1 score. If trainer Chad Brown were any hotter at this meet he would need asbestos shoes. Like where this guy’s going. Al Khali (5) – even with Hall of Fame connections in Bill Mott and Kent Desormeaux, plus last out win, I’m finding it hard to get excited. This distance is going to eat him up. Bearpath (6) in this son of Dynaformer’s last 10 races he’s run at everything from five and a half furlongs to today’s distance of a mile and a half. Last win at this mark came in the Grade 3 Pan American, where he was 9 seconds off this race’s record. Rumor has it a sundial was used to clock the race. ”Mr. Churchill,” Calvin Borel, is having a tough meet.
Grassy (7) – this is one you got watch out for. Throw out the Grade 2 Dixie two back and this guy is screaming for the distance he gets today. Crafty Frenchman Christophe Clement has been picking his spots well lately, and he’s picked a good one here. Lot of value. Telling (8), defending champ of this race, has been doing nothing but turning laps since this victory last year. Beat me again this year and I’ll be screaming “uncle.” Marsh Side (9) – ditto on the Vodka thing for this one also. Hadn’t had much luck on the American sod; prefers Canada. Tough spot for old timer to rebound. Grand Couturier (10) hasn’t shown the ability to handle a couple of today’s entrees. Will have to wake up spitting fire to change this downward spiral.
Looking forward to next weekend’s Festival of Racing from Arlington, but will need spending money. Here it is. Expansion and the youngster Grassy battle to the end. Rounding out the exotics — Marlang and Al Khali. Suggest boxing these four. Rick’s Picks: 4-7-1-5
The Sword Dancer has a competitive field of 10, including the winners of the past three runnings of this race. The speed will be Marlang (1), who won the Sunset last time at this distance, and he should set a soft pace. Al Kahli (5), who won the Saranac last year and Marsh Side (9), will stalk that pace. Marsh Side will only run if there is some give to the ground, which is expected. He will improve off his fourth in the Arlington Handicap and this is his best distance.
The rest will all come from well off the pace. Interpatation (3) shocked everyone with a Grade 1 win last year and has been known to get within a few lengths of the winner in graded stakes. Expansion (4) may be the favorite. In his last two starts he finished third in Grade 1 races behind Gio Ponti, Winchester, and Mission Approved. His trainer, Chad Brown is doing well right now, but he doesn’t think this is the horse’s best distance. Bearpath (6) was just behind Expansion in that last race, but he got squeezed badly and otherwise would have done a lot better. Grassy (7) has always looked talented, but so far has not made it to the top level. He comes off an optional claiming and maybe he is on track for the race of his life.
Telling (8) won the race last year, but while he showed some life in the United Nations, he has not done too much this year. Grand Couturier (10) also has not been at his best this year although he won this race in 2007 and 2008. He is always capable of running a big one, especially if the turf is wet. Romp (2) invades from California with plenty of experience at this distance. This is his first start for Jonathan Sheppard.
I can’t say I’m particularly confident with the order of my superfecta, but I will use Bearpath on top with the hopes that he gets a clean trip. Grassy will love the extra distance to get second. Expansion will be third, with Marsh Side fourth. If one of these scratches I would move up Marlang. Kat’s Picks: 6-7-4-9
There are three million dollar winners in this race but their ages add up to 22 years. Of the three, Marsh Side (9) appears to be the true contender. This seven-year-old appears to be in good form, and half his lifetime wins are at this distance. Bearpath (6) outran his odds in his last start in the Grade 1 Man O’ War when finishing a very respectable fourth. He has done well at this distance and on soft ground, so he rates a close look. The third horse that I see as having a good shot at winning is Expansion (4). He has been very competitive at this level of competition, and he will not have to face Gio Ponti this time out. Any of these three could win this.
Grassy (7) won at the Spa last summer on soft ground, albeit in an allowance race. He’s my other pick to join in the superfecta. Ultimately, I like Expansion’s class and will pick him to win. Bearpath is my choice to place, and I’ll take Grassy to edge Marsh Side for third. Bob’s Picks: 4-6-7-9
Race 9, Del Mar – La Jolla G2, 1 1/16 miles on turf for three-year-olds
The La Jolla is clearly a wide-open race, and I could see any of these reaching the wire first. Therefore, this is a great betting race, especially since two of the favorites will be trying turf for the first time. Sidney’s Candy (2) was the big California horse on the Derby trail this year, but when the Derby didn’t go so well he returned to lead in the Swaps before getting nailed in the last strides. He is bred okay for turf and this shorter distance. He will have to overcome pace pressure. Golden Itiz (7) is also trying grass after looking special in his last three starts which included a win in the Affirmed at this distance. Grass is a little more of a question for him, but he could be the real deal.
Leroy’s Dynameaux (1) looked really good winning the Will Roger in his closing style at this distance, and the pace could set up for him again today. He is improving with every start but will be meeting his stiffest competition to date. Alphie’s Bet (8) will also be coming from far back, but based on his last two races he is just a tiny bit behind the best today.
Macias (3) will press the pace and while he usually hits the board, he generally can’t hold on to win against this competition. Face and an Ace (6) may also be part of the pace. He did not get a good trip in his first stakes attempt and will need to improve. Summer Movie (4) is an improving colt who will try to run them down in the end. A lot of people understandably like him, but I’m not sure he will make it to the wire in time at 1 1/16. Finally we have Kid Edward (5). He is an intriguing colt, with two wins from three starts for trainer James Cassidy. He is very well bred for the turf and has a lot of upside. He should get better as the distances increase, but with the right trip he could step up in a big way.
I will choose Kid Edward to win and hope for good odds on him. Even if he’s not yet ready for the win, he is one to watch down the road. Sidney’s Candy should appreciate the surface switch. Maybe he would have been on turf earlier if the Derby wasn’t so tempting. Leroy’s Dynameaux will get up for third with Summer Movie charging late. Kat’s Picks: 5-2-1-4
Wow, this is a terrific race full of betting potential and interesting stories. One of the big questions is how will Sydney’s Candy (2) fare on turf? The firm turf at Del Mar could be every bit as fast as the synthetics on which he won at Santa Anita, so he may just go and say, “Catch me if you can.” The next big question concerns the class rise for Kid Edward (5). He is undefeated in three tries, and his pedigree is very strong. If he steps up successfully he could win this. The third question for me has is all about Leroy’s Dynameaux (1). His sire was a dominating competitor for a short period of time, and if his offspring mature into what he was they will be tough to beat. This one is off to a great start with a Grade 3 win to his credit in his first four races.
Macias (3), at one time, was the hot young turf star in California. He seems to be stuck on filling out tickets rather than topping them, but it would be careless to ignore him for a piece at least. Summer Movie (4) owns two wins on turf, but I’m not sure this is his best surface. He certainly could hit the board. Face and an Ace (6) – isn’t that a blackjack – will have to improve to compete with these.
Golden Itiz (7) has won three of four lifetime starts, but all have been on the main track synthetics. One of his wins was in a Grade 3 route race, so if he makes the surface switch okay he certainly is a player. Alphie’s Bet (8) broke his maiden on turf, but the bulk of his work has been on synthetics. He spent time on the Derby trial and his signals are mixed.
I won’t get much of price on Sydney’s Candy, but I have a hunch he’ll take to the hard turf at Del Mar just fine. I like the improving Leroy’s Dynameaux to finish second, followed by Macias. King Edward is another that is improving, so I’ll take him fourth. Bob’s Picks: 2-1-3-5
Leroy’s Dynameaux (1), gelded son of Leroidesanimeaux, took the Grade 3 Will Rogers at this distance by less than a second off this race’s record. We all know who he’s racing against, but don’t discount. Sydney’s Candy (2) – I understand this move, but I don’t. First-place money here is a tip at a pricey L.A. bistro. A win would be priceless. They know real dirt is not the answer for this youngster, and with the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill they’re looking for his spot. I saw him getting caught in the Swaps, as he ran true to form of Triple Crown participants in their next out race. Folks, this is fish or cut bait time for the diet connections. Macias (3) – been awhile since this boy has seen the winner’s circle. Has the skills, just needs some coaching. He’s got that in Bob Baffert, and with a series of hot work look for this one to move forward.
Summer Movie (4) hung tough against top choice last out. Hated the deep dish sod of Arlington. Hard to endorse, as he’s lost to a couple of these. Kid Edward (5) – nice win here on the grass at this distance. Lightly raced youngster knows what he wants to run on, and how long he wants to run. Gets in the exotics mix. Face and an Ace (6) – three time winner has shown a propensity for the sprints. That isn’t today.
Golden Itiz (7) switches to the sod for the first time, but that’s not the issue. Back to back wins at this distance, including the Grade 3 Affirmed. These are the scary types. Jockey Pat Valenzuela is born again tough and sober and carries this one a long ways. Alphie’s Bet (8) – you put Hall of Fame jock Mike Smith on a three legged mule and you got a chance. This is just not working for him or the horse. This guy has tried and won on the lawn, but there’s heartbreak again in his future.
Going to give Sidney’s Candy the benefit of the doubt. Serious quality here; maybe the lawn circuit in his true calling. Aside from Lucky, none of the West Coasties have fared well in their sojourn to real dirt. Rick’s Picks: 2-1-5-7

