Kat Kubik
and Bob Hill
Staff writers
Tracksidview.com

Gulfstream Park, Race 9 – The Fountain of Youth (Grade 2) 1 Mile for 3yos.

With the defection of Take the Points to the Sham at Santa Anita, 11 will line up for the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on Saturday afternoon. The deep field is intriguing in that it presents us with horses that can set the pace and win from the front and others that can stalk the pace and finish strong down the lane. Five of the 11 in the field have posted a 100+ Beyer speed figures at sprint distances of six or seven furlongs.

Bee Cee Cee (1) draws the tough post assignment here, and I think his chances are compromised severely from that spot in that he has not previously displayed great tactical speed. Theregoesjojo (2) showed tremendous improvement when he returned from a six-month layoff in January. He is one that will stalk what should be a quick pace.

Notonthesamepage (3) made everyone take notice when he crushed the field in the Spectacular Bid on Jan. 3. He folded his tent pretty early going 8 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland last fall, but it is possible that he did not like the synthetic surface. He will be one of the ones on the engine. Spratt Jack (5) moves from turf to dirt for the first time to race at a distance where he has two wins and four on the board finishes in four lifetime starts. He is another promising colt out of Candy Ride.

Rocketing Returns (6) pressed the pace in the Grade 2 Hutcheson and tired near the finish. If he gets too close to this pace he is likely to suffer the same fate on Saturday. Beethoven (7) finished fourth in the Grade 3 Holy Bull from an outside post from which he clearly lost ground early. He will get a pace to his liking, so we should find out just how good he is – or is not.

Break Water Edison (8) did not run a step in the Hutcheson in late January. After his win in the Grade 3 Nashua, many thought he would be a force in Florida this winter. It is not too late for him to assert himself, but he will have to return to the form of the Nashua to compete here. Capt. Candyman Can (9) has shown steady improvement in his last four races. If he is capable of taking another step forward, he will be very tough to beat in here.

Taqarub (10) shipped to Florida after winning three straight on the inner track at Aqueduct in late fall and winter. He has not rated in any race so far, so it looks like he will be one of the ones up front. Quality Road (11) is a lightly raced colt that could serve up a big surprise in this race. He gains the services of J.R. Velazquez in the irons, and his works are terrific coming into Saturday’s race.

How one feels about This Ones for Phil (12) probably defines the approach to this race. Was that eye-popping win in the Sunshine Millions Dash his breakthrough race after eight other average appearances, or was it one of those once-in-a-career moments?

I am going to play away from This Ones for Phil. There is enough quality in this race that I just don’t think he’ll repeat that last race. I expect Capt. Candyman Can to fill one of the top spots, and a win is certainly within reach. I expect Quality Road to make vast improvement, but I am hesitant to take him on top since he is one of several that have shown no inclination to date to rate off the pace. Beethoven may hit the board and fill out the superfecta, but I will not play him on top either. If one of the speed horses sticks around to the end, my money will be on Notonthesamepage. I also expect Theregoesjojo to take another step forward, and if Kent Desormeaux can keep him out of trouble he could be right there. I’m going to ignore the debacle of the Hutcheson and pick Break Water Edison in the exacta with the Capt. Bob’s picks: 9-8-2-7

This is a crazy race to handicap, and yet out of a field of eleven, Bob and I picked the same four horses! I agree that Capt. Candyman Can (9) should be the tentative favorite based on his consistent record, but I think Theregoesjojo (2) is good enough to pull a slight upset. He broke his maiden impressively back in May and then was fourth in a Grade 3 after being steadied. He made his return last month and beat a nice allowance field that included Quality Road (11) and Obligingly. He should improve off that start, and he will get the distance. I think he has loads of talent and with any luck he will show everyone just how good he is.

Another who should show us his best is Beethoven (7). This is a good distance for him and he will have every chance to hit the top four or better. Break Water Edison (8) is a tough one to figure out. We know he has the ability to win a race like this, but he is very inconsistent. Last time the loss was blamed on his post one draw, and it is true that his bad efforts have all been from that post. However, it is time for him to run another good one if he is to remain on the Derby trail. Kat’s picks: 2-9-8-7

Santa Anita, Race 9 – The Sham (Grade 3) 1 1/8 mile of Pro-Ride

The Sham is all about the grays: The Pamplemousse (5) and Take the Points (12). Both of these are classy colts with a lot of potential and choosing between them is tough. On one hand we have the big, gray Pamplemousse who took the Grade 3 San Rafael over Square Eddie in his first start against non-maidens, and on the other hand we have Take the Points who has looked brilliant winning an allowance in his last start and could be anything. However, The Pamplemousse detractors remind us that he had an easy lead in the San Rafael, and this is a longer race. His numbers are touch below those of Take the Points, but the latter is coming from Gulfstream, trying synthetic for the first time, stepping up in class, and stretching out from a mile. Not to mention he got stuck in post twelve.

With all of this to overcome I have to give the edge to The Pamplemousse for now. If you don’t like either of these colts you may want to go with Mr. Hot Stuff (7). Despite needing five times to break his maiden, he clearly has talent, and being a full brother to Colonel John, he has the breeding. This will be good experience for him and he may need the race. Of the rest I like Smart Bid (2) best. He broke his maiden at Philadelphia and then won on the turf at Santa Anita. Therefore, I would guess he can handle the surface, and he does get Rafael Bejarano in the irons. The rest of the field is Hi Flyin Indy (1), Tiz True (3), Lifeline (4), BalfourPark (6), Bourbon Bay (8), Ventana (9), Mark S the Cooler (10), and Unbridled Roman (11). Kat’s picks: 5-12-7-2

No matter how good he may become, Take the Points (12) has a tough task for a young colt. He just shipped to Santa Anita from across the country on Thursday and sets foot on the Pro-Ride for the first time. I think hitting the board would be an accomplishment for him.

Not a horse in this field has gone nine panels prior to this race, so no one knows for sure which ones will flourish with added distance and which ones will not. I think Kat named the winner of this race – Smart Bid (2). He should love this distance, and the turf to synthetic angle is a great one at Santa Anita. The Pamplemousse (5) probably will hang around for second, but I could not blame you if you wanted to take a swing at beating him there with Colonel John’s little brother Mr. Hot Stuff (7). You can fill out your ticket with Take the Points, Mark S the Cooler (10), and Bourbon Bay (8). Bob picks: 2-5-10-8