Kat Kubik,
Bob Hill
and Rick Francis
Staff writers
Tracksideview.com

This weekend is one for the ages!  Graded stakes in all parts of the country.  Trainers and jockeys, catching more red eyes than Visine can cure.  Synthetics, turf and dirt surfaces.  Life is good! As usual, your comments on welcome on the handicappers’ picks.

Race 8, Belmont Park – Grade 1 Frizette, one mile for two-year-old fillies

Annie’s Melody (1) has one start and one win.  She has a bullet work, but the rail slot seems to be a question.  Forestry sibling will need another start under her belt.  Devil May Care (2) is a tough call here.  Pletcher is on a roll and normally with jockey and Grade 1 status on the line this would be a lead pipe cinch.  Think it is the Champagne they’re after.

Empire Maker offspring are scary at Belmont.  Like Nonna Mia (3) they’re bred to stretch out and they will.  What’s not to like about Awesome Maria (4).  Perfect post; will love the added distance. She was pulling away from these in last.  The pick.   Everyone seems to be concerned what these girls sold for at auction.  The concern for Touching Beauty (5) is she started badly in Iast race and closed for a tough second.  She has progressed nicely with distance and will progress today.

 Franny Freud’s (6) Uncle Sigmund could not have interpreted the dream of having a filly that runs just as well on synthetics as on dirt.  She is second choice.   Worship the Moon (7) is the only one with two graded stakes under her belt.  Help me folks, but you run three competitive races on dirt, work three bullets on synthetics; where are we going?  The only reason not to consider her is last out two of these beat her.  Ricks Picks:  4-6-5-3.

 No horse in this field has tried 8 furlongs yet, so the unknown is a large factor in this handicapping equation.  Morning-line favorite Awesome Maria (4) owns a win on a sloppy track and two wins at 7 panels, so it is hard to imagine that this daughter of Maria’s Mon will not stretch out well on Saturday.  She is placed just outside Nonna Mia (3), the likely pacesetter in the race, so Awesome Maria should get a great stalking trip.  Nonna Mia probably will not be challenged on the lead, and she could give them all the slip quite easily.

Fanny Freud (6) has won on two different surfaces, at two different distances, at three different race tracks.  She, too, should get a good stalking trip.  Touching Beauty (5) finished second to Awesome Maria in the Grade 2 Matron after an awkward start.  Improvement is likely.  Worship the Moon (7) was third in the Matron at 37-1 odds. She will save her best running for the long Belmont stretch.

Annie’s Melody (1) and Devil May Care (2) both race against winners for the first time, as does Nonna Mia.  Each has a pedigree to predict success.  The only question is how big a jump it is from a maiden win to a Grade 1.  I am going to pick Nonna Mia in a wire job over Awesome Maria.  I like Devil May Care in the third spot, followed by Touching Beauty.  Bob’s Picks:  3-4-2-5

This short field contains many possible winners, but Awesome Maria (4) appears to be the one to beat off her Matron victory. She should stretch out, and she already beat Worship the Moon and Touching Beauty. Nonna Mia (3) won her second start in a romp after getting Lasix. It is quite a difference between that 5 ½ furlong race and this route, but she is bred to run long. Pletcher sends Devil May Care (2) into the race off a sloppy maiden win, and Touching Beauty (5) improved a lot to be second in the Matron and she should continue to improve today. Kat’s Picks: 4-3-2-5

Race 9, Belmont Park – Grade 1 Champagne, seven furlongs for two-year -olds

Only six horses line up for this year’s Champagne, but plenty will be watching to see if Dublin (5) can solidify his status as one of our very best two-year-olds. He broke his maiden in his second start and won the Hopeful very impressively.  His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas expects good things from him and while he does not tower over the rest of the field I expect him to win.  Aspire (3), the horse that finished second to him in the Hopeful will be facing him again. He had a poor trip in that race so if he has improved he could give Dublin a run for his money.  Homeboykris (6) will be making his first start for trainer Dutrow, which automatically makes him dangerous.  Dutrow thinks highly of this colt, but he has been on the shelf since July.  Discreetly Mine (4), half to Discreet Cat, will be a pace factor and he was second in the Futurity after breaking his maiden by six.  Super Saver (1) broke his maiden by seven with a solid speed figure and is the only horse to have run at this distance. I think he has a great shot.  Overlap (2) broke his maiden and then was no factor in the Hopeful after a bad trip for Barclay Tagg.

I think we will see a repeat of the Hopeful with Dublin and Aspire running 1-2. Super Saver will get third, benefiting from his experience at a mile. Kat’s Picks: 5-3-1

Super Saver (1) and Discreetly Mine (4) likely will hook up on the front end of this race on a track that has some moisture in it.  They should provide plenty of pace for Aspire (3) and Dublin (5) to close into, thus favoring those two as Kat points out.  Overlap (2) appears to be outmatched here, and Calder shippers are not an angle I like at Belmont so I’m not real high on Homeboykris (6).  I am going to pick Dublin on top of Discreetly Mine.  I’ll round out the other spots with Aspire and Super Saver.  Bob’s Picks: 5-4-3-1

Race 8, Keeneland – Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, 1 1/16 miles for two-year-olds

The morning lines attached to the 14 entries in this race clearly indicate that favoritism is widely dispersed.  Backtalk (2) is the morning-line favorite at odds of 4-1, followed by Dixie Band (1) and Aikenite (8) each at 5-1.  Make Music for Me (6) at 6-1 and Stately Victor (14) at 8-1 are the only others in the field at less than double-digit morning line odds.

Backtalk owns the most prestigious victory in the field having won the Grade 2 Sanford at Saratoga in July.  Dixie Band is a perfect three-for-three at Arlington Park, topped off by his win in the Grade 3 Arlington Washington Futurity last month.  Aikenite finished ahead of Backtalk in the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga, a race in which Backtalk was dismally outrun early after a poor break.  Make Music for Me was a one-length runner up to Lookin Lucky in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity and he finished an even closer second to that same colt in the Grade 2 Best Pal. Evidently his connections believe he has a better chance of beating these after shipping him all the way from California.  Make Music for Me still has not broken his maiden.   Stately Victor broke his maiden routing on the turf at the SPA, and he faces winners for the first time.

No Shenanigans (3) ships in from Monmouth Park to face winners for the first time after breaking his maiden at 8 furlongs last out.  Hockley (4) is a highly regarded non-winner trying two turns for the first time.  Callide Valley (5) broke his maiden in his second race at a distance of 7 furlongs at Saratoga.  Noble’s Pride owns a win at Ellis Park and an overnight stakes win at Presque Isle Downs on the all weather surface.  He likely will be part of the pace scenario.

Hurricane Ike (9) is another shipper from California.  He finished fourth in the Best Pal before closing to a fifth place finish in the Del Mar Futurity.  Piscitelli (10) closed very strongly in the Arlington Washington Futurity in his third place finish in that race.  He looks ready to go for trainer Greg Sacco.  Soundman (11) is the veteran of the field with seven starts that have produced one win and three other in-the-money finishes.

Roman Invasion (12) faces winners the first time after winning last out on a wet track at Delaware Park in a race taken off the turf.  He won that race wire-to-wire.  Wildcat Nation (13) is a second Lukas entry, and he too faces winners for the first time.

I thought Backtalk just had a terrible trip in the Hopeful, and I look for him to do much better here.  There is a good chance that the all weather surface at Keeneland will be wet on Saturday.  When that weather condition shows up I look for a front runner to carry speed a long way.  That pace scenario seems to favor Dixie Band, Noble’s Promise, and Roman Invasion.  Aikenite was up close in his maiden victory, and I believe that is where he also will try to be in his race.  Out of all of these, he is the one I am going to pick him to win.  I’ll choose Backtalk to get second, Stately Victor third and Piscitelli fourth.  Bob’s Picks:  8-2-14-10.

The wet synthetics may put him at a disadvantage, but the horse I like in the race is Make Music for Me (7). He was twice second behind Lookin at Lucky, who is possibly our top two year old colt. I think once he gets away from that foe he will finally reach the winner’s circle, with added distance only helping him. Backtalk (2) did nothing wrong in his first three starts and a poor trip cost him a better showing last time out. He should hopefully run back to form here, but he’s got some tough competitors. Stately Victor (14) has the disadvantage of an extremely wide post, but I liked the way he broke his maiden at today’s distance of 1 1/16, despite the fact that it was on the turf. As Bob said, Dixie Band (1) has a great shot at wiring them on the wet course, but there are a few who could pressure him. He does have the good experience of a race at a mile under his belt. Kat’s Picks: 7-2-14-1

Race 7, Santa Anita – Grade 1 Goodwood, 1 1/8 mile for three-year-olds and up

The Goodwood showcases a very nice field of some of the best male distance horses in the country. In fact, a case could be made for each one of them. But one thing to consider is that there is just one speed horse in the race so the closers won’t have much to run at.  Tres Borrachos(5) is that lone speed horse and while on his best day he could win this, he faded badly in his last start so I have doubts if he can hold on this time.  Mine That Bird (10) will likely be the favorite, or at least the sentimental favorite. He, of course, won the Derby and most recently was third in the West Virginia Derby.  He needs a strong pace to make his best closing kick, but even if that materializes for him he may not be fully cranked for this race. His trainer said he does not need to win this because the major goal is the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Also of note is Richard’s Kid (3).  He shocked many people by taking the Pacific Classic in his last start for his first graded stakes win.  Judging by his bullet work, he appears to be ready for more.  Colonel John (4) had a rough trip in the Pacific Classic and since he will be making his third start of his cycle he should run his best race. Tiago (2) has only run twice this year and neither has been anywhere near his best.  He should definitely improve here but he would need to get back to his form of last year to be a contender for the win.  Chocolate Candy (1) ran one of his best races here last year to finish second in the Santa Anita Derby but since then has not done much to suggest that he can replicate that effort.

Monzante (6) is a Grade 1 winner on the turf and was second in a mile-long prep for this race. He could hit the board but this is a tough field.  Parading (7) looked good winning the Ben Ali at this distance at Keeneland and the Dixie on the turf, but was fourth in the Pacific Classic. He may have an advantage by sitting off the pace and getting the jump on all the closers. He may be one who can stay out of trouble and get a nice trip. Gitano Hernando (8) is a highly-regarded horse from Great Britain who lured Kieran Fallon all the way here for the ride. Obviously there is a lot expected from him but he has a lot to deal with such as trying synthetics the first time and making a long trip after a win just under a month ago. Informed (9) has the advantage of a versatile running style and he has a win in the San Diego before being ninth in the Pacific Classic.

I will use Mine That Bird for second instead of first because I don’t think he is saving his best race for next month. I like Richard’s Kid for the win because I think he is in his best form right now and he has already proven himself capable of beating fields as good as this. With a better trip Colonel John will get third on a track he likes, and Parading will manage fourth by sitting off Tres Borrachos. Kat’s Picks: 3-10-4-7

The combination of one speed horse and four deep closers does present a handicapping problem for sure.  For some reason, even lone speed seems to go faster at Santa Anita than elsewhere so I agree with Kat’s assessment that Tres Borrachos (5) probably cannot wire this field.  I was very high on Chocolate Candy (1) last spring, but he has not improved since then so it is hard to pick him on top.  Tiago (2) often hits the board in races like this one, and he did win this race in 2007. That said, I think a bottom of the trifecta placing is more likely than a photo session in the Winner’s Circle.  Richard’s Kid (3) probably is more dangerous at a longer distance than this race.  He is in form and dangerous.  Mine That Bird (10) requires a perfectly time ride to win, something that eluded Mike Smith in the Preakness and Calvin Borel in the Belmont.  I will play him in the exacta.

Colonel John (4) has won on this track in the past when the pace has been soft.  He should be forwardly placed in the Goodwood, and I expect that he will crank up for one good run at it this time.  This could be redemption time for him.  Monzante (6) makes his second start of a very long layoff, and his first race back was solid.  A return to past form makes him a candidate for a finish in the top four.  Parading (7) is another that should be forwardly placed, and if the late runners are late in getting there he is dangerous.  Gitano Hernando (8) is two for two on synthetics in Europe and won at the distances bracketing 9 furlongs.  He could be worth a shot if you don’t find one you like.  Informed (9) is versatile, but his record in Grade 1 races suggests that a win is unlikely.

I will admit to some sentimentality in picking the exacta box of Colonel John and Mine That Bird.  I’ll take a shot with newcomer Gitano Hernando in third and Tiago up for fourth.  I strongly suggest that you get deep in this race.  Bob’s Picks:  4-10-8-2.