Kat Kubik
and Bob Hill
Staff writers
Tracksideview.com

Ladies Day at the Breeders’ Cup

Arcadia, Calif., — Much about this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup is new.  For the first time, the races traditionally contested on dirt will be run on the Pro-Ride synthetic surface at Santa Anita.  Another major change is that all of the races for fillies and mares have been carded on Friday, Day 1 of the two-day affair.

The new Pro-Ride surface is thought to be playing fast by most observers and trainers.  In that regard, perhaps the new in Southern California is not so new after all.  The art and science of handicapping on synthetic surfaces is still so new that most will admit some added uncertainty.  However, we all get to say we were there for both of these new experiences that will become a part of the lore and history of thoroughbred racing’s biggest weekend of the year.

My partner, Kat Kubik, and I are offering up our thoughts on all 14 Breeders’ Cup races. Our picks for Friday appear in this column, and the remainder will appear in a companion piece to be posted soon.

Salient Flight Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at 7 furlongs on Pro-Ride – G1 —$1,000,000

Indian Blessing (5) will be the filly getting most of the attention as she tries to become the first to win two different Breeders’ Cup races.  She won the Juvenile Fillies last year and since then she has become the top female sprinter.  She is a formidable foe, but her trainer Bob Baffert has commented that she is better on regular dirt.  I think she will be good enough for second but the win may go to the Juddmonte filly Ventura (12).  Ventura is considered to be a miler on turf, but she did very well in England on synthetic surfaces, and she won the Grade 2 Madison at Keeneland in April.  There will be an abundance of speed for her to run at; it is just a question of can she get there in time.  She also has been working out beautifully at Santa Anita. 

To round out the superfecta I like Intangaroo (3) and Tiz Elemental (8).  Intangaroo has been a solid competitor on synthetic, but she is much better on regular dirt.  She is better than ever and she will be coming from off the pace with Tiz Elemental.  Tiz Elemental is one of California’s better female sprinters, and she beat Intangaroo in a Grade 3 in April.  She always runs a good race and with the extra speed in the race she could step it up at a price.  Zaftig (6) is immensely talented but she will be running for the first time on Pro-Ride, and the first time since June.  Dearest Trickski (9) is a Grade 1 winner on synthetic, but she will have to prove that she can win from behind the leader.  Kat’s picks:  12-5-3-8.

I think Dearest Trickski (9) may well be the speed of the speed and on the lead. Lady Sprinter (7) has lead gate to wire in nearly all of her races.  Indian Blessing (5) has won pressing at the neck of a fast leader and will try to do so again.  Dream Rush (7) was so fresh when she started in September she went the first half-mile in just over 43 seconds. 

All of that says to me that if anyone is to dislodge Indian Blessing from the winner’s circle in this race, it is likely to be from off the pace.  That says Ventura (12), Zaftig (6), Intangaroo (3), or Tiz Elemental (8) to me.  If Indian Blessing can rate off of the speed balls, she will win, and that’s where I’ll play. I’m looking for the race to come apart a bit, so I’m taking a shot with Ventura and Tiz Elemental on the board ahead of Intangaroo.  My heart hopes for great things from the Will Phipps’ trainee Dream Rush.  Bob’s Picks:  5-8-12-3.

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at 1 mile — $1,000,000

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is one of many wide-open races in this Breeders’ Cup.  While a case can be made for many of them, I will go with Consequence (7) at 8-1. She broke her maiden over a good turf at Saratoga very impressively, and followed that effort with a close fourth in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo at Keeneland.  The turf was yielding that day and she had traffic trouble in the stretch.  Once she got out from behind horses she closed quickly.  She had one of the more impressive works at Santa Anita and appears to like the hard turf.  She is far from a sure thing, but she is coming into the race the right way for trainer McGaughey. Laragh (2) figures to be the lone speed in the race and it may be tough to catch her. She vastly improved in her last race on firm turf, and if she repeats her effort she should win this. Saucey Evening (11) had her chances compromised with the 11th post-position, but she won her only start on the turf and she has been improving with every start.  Her trainer, Graham Motion, feels that she is a turf horse and she has experience at the distance.  The Wayne Catalano/Frank Calabrese combo brings Sugar Mom (8) into the race off of a win in the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Fillies on synthetic.  She has won her last three starts on synthetic and her pedigree suggests that she will switch to grass without a problem.  Other fillies to keep an eye on are the Europeans. April Pride (1), Beyond Our Reach (10) and Heart Shaped (12) all have had modest success in England and Ireland, and if they adjust to Santa Anita they should fit well in this race.  Kat’s picks: 7-2-11-8.

Graham Motion is as good a turf trainer as there is in the U.S.  Saucey Evening (11) moves from the Pro-Ride to turf in this race.  Her ability to close ground on the synthetic surface should transfer well to the turf.  Laragh (2) should set the pace, and she will be very dangerous unless pressured by one of the others in this field.  Maram (3), Freedom Rings (6), and Consequence (7) all emerge from the Grade 3 Miss Grillo in which they finished in a four-way photo finish.  Take your pick among them for the bottom of the ticket.  Bob’s Picks:  11-2-7-3.

Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at 1-1/16 mile on ProRide – G1 — $1,000,000 

Most would agree that this race seems to go through Stardom Bound (10), winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Deb and Oak Leaf.  As with any deep closer, especially young ones, traffic can be a problem in a field as large as this one.  She will get the pace she needs in this race, and it will take a big effort from one of the others to beat her.

C.S. Silk (8) and Dream Empress (12) carry the bragging rights as the best of the Midwest fillies in this race.  C.S. Silk romped while loose on the lead in the Arlington-Washington Lassie, and Dream Empress made it look easy on the synthetic at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Alcibiades where she pressed a reasonable pace and drew away for a four-length victory.  Palacio de Amor (9) provided the pace in the Oak Leaf and Del Mar Deb, and I expect that she and C.S. Silk will guarantee plenty of action up front.  Be Smart (5) is another likely contributor to a quick pace.

Sky Diva (4), winner of the Grade 1 Frizette, has not been pushed in two impressive victories.  If this daughter of Sky Mesa takes to the synthetic surface, watch out!  Two others worth a mention are Van Lear Rose (6), winner of two straight on the synthetic surface of Woodbine and Pursuit of Glory (11), the Irish bred who has won sprinting in Great Britain.

Remember, these youngsters can blossom overnight, so do not dismiss any of them out of hand, especially when filling out bottom spots in trifectas and superfectas.

Stardom Bound is on her home court, an advantage that C.S. Silk will not quite overcome. Sky Diva will get up for third and Palacio de Amor will hang around for fourth.  Bob’s Picks:  10-8-4-9.

I agree that Stardom Bound (10) will get the win, and will clinch the championship.  She is yet another Californian filly superstar, like Halfbridled, Sweet Catomine, and Rags to Riches, who looks like the real deal.  Her only concern is keeping out of traffic while making her closing move.  C.S. Silk (8) is a nice filly as well. She won her last two starts and has experience on synthetic.  She is versatile and she will most likely be in a stalking position on Friday.  Pursuit of Glory (11) has run in Ireland and England and was most recently third in a Group 1 event.  She has experience on synthetic, but she will have a lot of new things to deal with such as the distance, the traveling, and the heat.  Many of the fillies could get the fourth spot but the best may be Sky Diva (4).  We don’t know how good she is, but she will be trying synthetic and 1 1/16 for the first time.  These four seem to be the best in the field, and I would be surprised if anybody else got the win.  Kat’s Picks: 10-8-11-4.

Fly Emirates Breeders’ Cup filly and Mare Turf at 1-1/4 mile – G1 — $2,000,000

Wait a While (5) is three-for-three on the Santa Anita lawn.  She was not pushed hard in her Yellow Ribbon victory, as it was clear that Todd Pletcher was saving some for this race.  This is a much tougher bunch lining up here, so this is anything but automatic for Wait a While.

Up until the Flower Bowl loss, Mauralakana (7) was dominating turf racing in New York this past summer.  Dynaforce (6) got away from her that day, but Mauralakana never really threatened in the race.  Does that indicate a drop off in form, or was the race a warm-up for this? One thing is pretty certain, and that is Dynaforce will not get away with the fractions she set alone on the lead in the Flower Bowl.

The Irish-bred Folk Opera (9) served notice in the Grade 1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine three weeks ago that she came to the U.S. locked and loaded.  She has won on or near the pace; an approach that I think makes her ultra dangerous in here.  She is three-for-three at the distance.

Aiden O’Brien enters Halfway to Heaven (8) off of three wins in four tries in Group 1 races in Great Britain and Ireland.  She has won at this distance, and this trainer is to never be taken lightly.  In May, Halfway to Heaven finished right behind Zarkava and Goldikova in a Group 1 race at Longchamp.  Forever Together (3) is stretching back out and she is in top form.  Jonathan Sheppard is having a very nice year, and a horse that has won both the Diana and First Lady this year is serving notice that she is dangerous.

I see the others as contending for the bottom of the superfecta at best.  Irish-breds were a good bet at Santa Anita the last time the BC races were carded there.  I’m picking Halfway to Heaven over Folk Opera and Wait a While.  Forever Together rounds out the ticket.  Bob’s Picks: 8-9-5-3.

Wait A While (5) loves this track and after having to scratch out of the race last year, she is due for the win.  However, 1-1/4 is a bit beyond her best so I will give the slight edge to the Juddmonte filly Visit (4), who is a better value at 15-1. Visit (G runs in England for Michael Stoute who won the Mile with the filly Islington last time the Breeders’ Cup was at Santa Anita.  Visit’s dam Arrive, is a full sister to Hasili who has produced Breeders’ Cup winners Banks Hill and Intercontinental.  While she has never run beyond a mile, the Euros have a great record in the Breeders’ Cup and it would be dangerous to leave her out of your trifecta.

Halfway to Heaven (8) ships in from Ireland for Aidan O’Brien with three Group One wins on her resume.  She will be closer to the pace than most Euros, and while she may be best at a mile, she has won at 1-1/4 mile.  We know Vacare (2) likes Santa Anita, and she has a good turn of foot that could get her into the top four.  Kat’s picks: 4-5-8-2.

Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic at 1-1/8 mile on ProRide – G1 — $2,000,000

Formerly the Distaff, this version of the Ladies’ Classic is loaded with some terrific fillies and mares.  One of them, in fact, may be on her way to being considered one of the greats of all time.  Zenyatta (1) is undefeated in eight lifetime starts.  She is visually stunning because of her size.  She has beaten two of three major threats this year.

I thought that Hysterical Lady (2) had a real shot at Zenyatta in the Lady Secretariat last month, as she would be able to dictate pace.  I was wrong, and Zenyatta made her victory look easy.  Ginger Punch (6) is the defending champion in this race, and she has five wins in seven tries this year – not exactly a slump.  Both losses occurred when she was forced to the lead in paceless races, an unlikely occurrence on Friday at Santa Anita.

The emerging star in this group is Cocoa Beach (3), winner of the Grade 1 Beldame.  Bred in Chile and raced in Dubai, Cocoa Beach is two-for-two since shipping to North America.  Her presence makes this a very interesting race.  Carriage Trail (5) loves the synthetic surfaces and could factor in the race, as well.  Three-year-old Music Note (4) has three impressive Grade 1 wins this year. Her odds the last three times she has raced have been 2-5 or less.  You’ll get better than that in this race.

I am picking Ginger Punch to win this race.  When she does not have to set the pace, she has been virtually unbeatable. Zenyatta has been unbeatable, but I’m taking a shot that she leaves herself slightly too much to do on Friday.  I’m taking Carriage Trail third and Music Note to round out the super.  Bob’s Picks:  6-1-5-4.

The Ladies’ Classic may be the strongest field in the Breeders’ Cup.  There are three fillies/mares who have the talent to win the race: Zenyatta (1), Ginger Punch (6), and Cocoa Beach (3).  Zenyatta is no doubt a great mare but there are a few ways that she could be beat, if that is possible.  She has a habit of acting up before the race and she will have to deal with a larger crowd than any she has ever seen.  Her weakest race was at a mile and an eighth so it appears that she is better at a shorter distance.  Also, she will have a target on her back.  She will break from post 1 for the first time and she will have to get away from the rail to make her big move.  Some are concerned that other jockeys will block her.  For once, Ginger Punch will not have a target on her back.  She will have to run the best race of her life to beat Zenyatta, but if she takes to the surface and Zenyatta has traffic problems, she could do it.  She runs her best race when it counts. 

We have only seen Cocoa Beach twice in the U.S. but she is full of talent and I don’t think we have seen her best.  She has lots of experience over different surfaces, and she had a great work at Santa Anita.  She is a serious threat to Zenyatta and Ginger Punch.  Hystericalady (2) is my fourth choice, which shows what a deep field this is.  She is much better on dirt, and while she should improve in her second start on Pro-Ride, she still should not threaten Zenyatta. Kat’s picks: 6-1-3-2.