Kat Kubik
and Bob Hill
Staff writers

Kat and Bob give it their best shots for Saratoga’s closing weekend. If you have thoughts on other horses, we welcome your comments.

Saturday, Race 9 – The Forego Grade 1, 7 furlongs for three-year olds and up
The Argentine bred Lucky Island (7) did not run in a maiden race until June of his 3-year old season, a race in which he produced a convincing victory sprinting on turf in his homeland. His first U.S. race was in December of that year, a race in which a stumble at the start ended all chance of his winning.  Since then, however, Lucky Island has convincingly dominated in his last four races, all wins, including the Grade III Bold Ruler and Grade II Tom Fool.  Lucky Island is the clear choice to win his fifth in a row in the Forego.  The Bobby Frankel-trained First Defence (2) and Tasteyville (9) are the other two graded stakes winners in this field. Tasteyville finished a distant second to Lucky Island in the Tom Fool. First Defence finished second in last year’s King’s Bishop at Saratoga and comes in off a second place finish in the Grade II A.G. Vanderbilt. The paired entry of Forefathers (1) and Premium Wine (1a) are others likely to hit the board. Eternal Star (3) is one for one at Saratoga and two for two at the tricky seven-furlong distance as he steps up into graded company for the first time.  Bold Start (4), Ferocious Fires (5), Real Estate (6), and Greeley’s Conquest (8) all could compete for a piece at the bottom of the exotics if they are at their very best.  Bob’s Picks:  7-2-1a-3.

A case could be made for each of the Forego’s ten starters, but I think Bob is right on with his top two picks. Lucky Island (7) looks like a special colt, and Kiaran McLaughlin is very confident with him. First Defence (2) was second to Lucky Island’s stable-mate Abraaj last time and he could be second again. I was going to leave him out, but Frankel said he has done something that could help his chances.

Ferocious Fires (5) could be anything at this point. He has won all eight of his dirt starts, including four wins at Saratoga. Another promising newcomer to the division is Eternal Star (3). He has five stakes wins but will be trying graded company for the first time. One colt of interest is Real Estate (6). He is a half-brother to top fillies Madcap Escapade and Dubai Escapade. He’s had a lot of breaks in his career and if he can stay around a while he is one to watch. Kat’s picks: 7-2-5-3.

Saturday, Race 10 – The Woodward Grade 1, 1-1/8 mile for three-year olds and up

The Woodward is Curlin’s first appearance at Saratoga, and the race likely is his farewell showcase at this famous venue.  I will be amazed if Curlin (5) does not dominate this field once he straightens into the stretch run on Saturday.  Kiaran McLaughlin’s Divine Park (4) comes into the Woodward off of wins in two graded stakes, both at a distance of one mile.  The son of Chester House should have no problem with the distance in the Woodward, and if you were inclined to try to beat Curlin he would be the one I could see playing the spoiler role.  A.P. Arrow (1) appears to be dealing with the post-Dubai syndrome.  He could hit the board, or he could finish last.  It has been 18 months since Out of Control (7) has raced off the turf, but on the basis of class alone he should be considered for one of the pieces.  Past the Point (3) is in good form, and the others — Loose Leaf (2), Dr. D.F.C. (6), and Wanderin Boy (8) look like ones to round out the ticket.  Bob’s Picks:  5-7-4-3.

Curlin (5) may be the best horse in the world, but lets not crown him a winner until after the race. Divine Park (4) has been a sensational miler, and he should at least be able to make a race of it. Past the Point (3) starts off at 15-1 for Darley, and he will be ridden by Edgar Prado. He has the look of a nice up-and-comer after his strong prep win at Saratoga. I refuse to give up on A.P. Arrow (1) who, like Bob said, could hit the board or finish last. He has shown lots of talent, but he has a tendency to hide it. For a while it looked like Todd Pletcher had found the key to success by adding blinkers, but after two bad races the blinkers come back off. (Come on Arrow!)

Out of Control (7) is finally going to run, and it will be interesting to see how he does on the dirt, and if they will aim for the Breeders’ Cup Turf or the Classic. Wanderin Boy (8) could try to steal it on the front and after a super-strong prep, they had better not let him get away. Loose Leaf (2) is a nice horse, but this is an ambitious spot. Dr. D.F.C. (6) is in way over his head but lets hope he does well. Kat’s picks: 5-4-3-1.

Sunday, Race 10 – The Spinaway Grade 1, 7 furlongs for 2-year old fillies

There are some interesting handicapping challenges in the Grade I Spinaway.  The Grade III Schuylerville was run in the slop on July 23, so how much can any of us rely on the results of that race – be they good or bad – in grading the performances of Girlfriendontheside (1), Jardin (4) or Collegiate (6).  Mine All Mine (5) competed against the boys in two races at Churchill Downs last spring, so what do we do with those results.  She did not break her maiden until facing other fillies at Saratoga in late July, also on a sloppy track.  August Rush (7) owns a maiden win in her only race – sprinting on the turf.  Casanova Move (3) owns a maiden win sprinting at the Spa early in the month, but her pedigree says turf to me.  That leaves Winning Brew (2), that appears to be badly outclassed here, and Mani Bhavan (8), the runaway winner of a maiden race in July and the Grade II Adirondack just more than two weeks ago at Saratoga.  It will be much harder for Mani Bhavan to make the lead this time because she is drawn outside of Casanova Move, Mine All Mine, and August Rush, all of which have shown interest in the front end in their previous races.  Jardin and Collegiate also have been right with the pace in their earlier races, so there would appear to be a great likelihood of a large group of horses near the front of the Spinaway.  Girlfriendontheside likely will be behind at least five or six of these through the one turn of the seven furlong race, and she has not yet shown the inclination to pass horses in the stretch.  Given all that, I’m going to take Collegiate on top, forgiving her performance on the wet track during the Schuylerville.  I like Jardin second and Casanova Move third.  I’ll round out the superfecta with Mani Bhavan.  Bob’s Picks:  6-4-3-8.
 
There are two fillies in the Spinaway who jump out at me. They are Casanova Move (3) and Mine All Mine (5). Both of these fillies broke their maiden by nine lengths in their last start. Casanova Move was making her second start for trainer James Jerkens, and Mine All Mine was making her fourth start. I always like to see them improving with each race.

Mani Bhaven (8) will have more speed to contest with than in either of her previous races, but she has done nothing wrong. Jardin’s (4) numbers are lower than some of the fillies’, but so far she has done everything that has been asked of her. She is a full brother to the late Beacon Shine. Kat’s picks: 3-5-8-4.