Rick Francis
Staff writer
Tracksideview.com

(The holiday weekend gives Rick a great chance to handicap to his heart’s content, and he takes on the two top races at Saratoga Race Course. Good Luck)

103rd Running of the Grade 3 SARANAC at a mile-and-three-sixteenth on turf for 3-year-olds

TURF MELODY (1), had his best effort last out only to lose by one-and-a-quarter lengths. This field is softer than what he’s been facing. Still it’s hard to endorse. FANTASTICO ROBERTO (2), if you throw out his last, this guy’s on the right track. Early speed, which he is, has been prevalent and holding up. You know how it goes though, until you bet on them. Irish bred is destined to go long, plus these are the type of graded stakes trainer Todd Pletcher eats up. LETHAL COMBINATION (3), one of two that has showed in graded in competition, still won’t be enough.

MYSTIC (4), Hall of Fame connections of trainer Bill Mott and jock Kent Desormeaux are hitting at 20 percent this meet, but Desormeaux cracked a vertabra in a spill Friday and won’t be aboard. This Unbridled’s Song son sandwiched wins with a dismal Churchill performance, does like Saratoga though. Quite playable. DEVON ROCK (5), last two efforts sported the words “lugged and weakened.” There’s seconditis and worse, show finishes. Finishing in the money is not the same as winning the money. Need to straighten this guy out now. CITRUS KID (6), eight month layoff showed in last. Would get excited about trainer John Terranova’s record on the second effort off layoff, but this guy doesn’t lead, and he doesn’t close, waiting for next try.

Our colleague, Laurie Ross pointed out the stats for this meet so far, 66 percent winners from the front running section. Twenty-two percent wins were wire to wire. Go with the stats.

Rick’s picks: 2,5 and 4.

119th running of  the Grade 1 SPINAWAY at 7 furlongs for 2-year-old fillies

I like the fact that ABIDE’s (2) is a front runner and was pulling away at six furlongs. Trainer Steve Asmussen has more than 1,700 wins this year, that’s nearly a 1,000 more than runner up Todd Pletcher and he would be glad to trade in a few for Sunday’s score. He wants this one. ALIENATION (3), owned and trained by the Baffert family. This Rock Hard Ten daughter is one of the few here at Saratoga that hasn’t been able to hold the lead. Going to be tough, as all of Baffert’s charges are, just don’t think she can close on this group. COAX LIBERTY (6), overmatched in Grade 2 company last out, not much changing today.

R HEAT LIGHTNING (7), her two races so far have shown the ability to lead and to close, solid worksheet here as well. One of four entered here for Pletcher. This one’s going be trouble. STOPSPENDINGMARIA (1), wants the front and will get it. Gave up the lead late last out, and will take everything she’s got to hold it today. SKY HOSOYA (1a), is the gun of the Repole stable arsenal. Think this one holds on longer than any of Pletcher’s offerings. VALIANT PASSION (4), the real closer of Pletcher’s buffet. Lion Heart filly not only closed, but slammed the door behind her. LE MI GEAUX (5), the only graded stakes winner in the field. Don’t let the light Beyer’s fool you, she handled the slop and the competition for that Grade 3 score. Will have to break through the Pletcher defensive line, and I’m thinking she doesn’t get through.

As we saw in yesterday’s Forego, you can close on this track at seven furlongs, just don’t think two-year-olds can, yet.

Rick’s picks: 2,1a,4,7.