Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview.com

 LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The good thing about Thursday morning at Churchill Downs was none of the contenders in the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby scratched from the races. The bad thing was the rain settled in for what looked to be a long stay.

The forecast for both today and Friday was a 60 percent to 70 percent chance of rain. Saturday’s outlook is much better with only a 30 percent chance.

Papa Clem put in the final serious work today, going three furlongs in 34 flat and galloping out four furlongs in 47. Clockers and other observers were much more impressed with this move than his earlier one. As one put it, “Looks like he got a change of oil.”

Most of the other Derby and Oaks contenders made an appearance on the track for jogs or light gallops. Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire, in particular, made nice appearances.

Rachel Alexandra, the 3-5 morning-line favorite for the Oaks, was full of herself as galloped around the track. Her neck was bowed as she skipped effortlessly over the ground. She was shaking her head, almost in disagreement, as her exercise rider pulled her up on the backstretch.

 The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro comes into the Oaks off four consecutive wins dating back to November. She has two Grade 2 wins this year, one at Fair Grounds and the other at Oaklawn Park.

Her main competition should come from Justwhistledixie who has five consecutive wins, two coming this year in Grade 2 races at Gulfstream Park. Gabby’s Golden Gal invades from the West Coast and most recently won the Sunland Park Oaks by 13 lengths on March 29 at Sunland Park in New Mexico.

Flying Spur finishes second to Rachel Alexandra in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 14, her last race. The rest of the field is made up of Tweeter, Be Fair, Stone Legacy and Nan.

Rachel Alexandra looks like she probably could have won the Derby if they would have entered her, which is why she is the overwhelming choice in the Oaks. If anybody has a shot at her it’s Justwhistledixie, but that may be a small shot at best.

Her jockey, Calvin Borel, called her the best horse in the country. Not the best filly in the country, but the best horse in the country. I think I agree with that.