Ron Correll
Senior columnist
Tracksideview.com

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – The 2010 Kentucky Derby trail wasn’t that bumpy early on when it came to horses falling off because of injuries. Buddy’s Saint, Radiohead and Odysseus were the only ones that had to make an early exit because of ailments. But it was another story once those talented 3-year-olds starting showing up at Churchill Downs.

Eskendereya, winner of the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial, was the first to fall with swelling around an ankle. Trainer Todd Pletcher lost his best bet to finally win a Derby, having already gone 0-24. Two other Pletcher horses, Aikenite and Interactif, weren’t training well and they would not be entered in the 136^th Run for the Roses.

On Wednesday, the day of the Derby post-position draw, Endorsement, winner of the Sunland Park Derby, suffered a fracture in his right front ankle during his last workout for the race and he too could not be entered.

Three horses that showed up at Churchill Downs hoping to get in the Derby but were lacking in graded stakes earnings, the qualifier for making the 20-horse field, had their prayers answered. Those three were Jackson Bend, Backtalk and Make Music for Me.

A week ago, because of more parity in the prep races, the “insiders” were predicting it would take at least $250,000 to crack the earnings window. Make Music for Me, the last one in, did it with $215,000. That’s still a healthy chunk of earnings and a far cry from the $55,500 that Nowhere to Hide earned to get in as the last horse in 2009.

The Derby draw was not kind to favorite Lookin At Lucky (3-1) and he was stuck with the one hole. The second favorite, Sidney’s Candy, drew the far outside in the 20 hole. What goes on in between is the real mystery. I will first list the 19 colts and one filly by post position and give my thoughts on each before I wrap this up with my picks.

The post positions with jockeys, trainers, and Mike Battaglia’s odds are:

1. Lookin At Lucky (Garrett Gomez and Bob Baffert) 3-1. This guy’s name really should be “no luck at all” because recently the son of Smart Strike can’t seem to get a break. In three out of his last four races he managed to find trouble. Drawing the one hole adds insult to injury. Baffert is taking the blinkers off so maybe dropping him back at the start will be the plan.
2. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano and Nick Zito) 10-1. He has been off since winning the Florida Derby on March 20 and the two colts that finished behind him have not flourished in later races. Zito is not concerned about the layoff and if the speed falls apart, he’ll be waiting.
3. Noble’s Promise (Willie Martinez and Ken McPeek) 12-1. His Arkansas Derby problems are behind him. McPeek said it was allergies that kept the colt from running his best there. He’s another one that will want to be near the lead.
4. Super Saver (Calvin Borel and Todd Pletcher) 15-1. He should be primed for the Derby after two race where he wasn’t cranked up 100 percent. At least that’s what his connections are saying after a third in the Tampa Bay Derby and a second in the Arkansas Derby. He and the guy in the five hole should be leading the way early. If it’s playing, Calvin will be looking for the rail early. Super Saver also is the only colt in the field to have a win over the Churchill Downs main track. That was the Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 28.
5. Line of David (Rafael Bejarano and John Sadler) 30-1. He will continue the duel he started with Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby. Coming out of this hole, he’ll have clear shot to the lead if he breaks alertly.
6. Stately Victor (Alan Garcia and Michael Maker) 30-1. He will be devoid of early speed and he had better get out of the way of the two to his inside and the one to his outside. His best performance has been on synthetics. Trainer’s ‘medicine chest’ has been questioned before.
7. American Lion (David Flores and Eoin Harty) 30-1. This son of Tiznow is another who’ll be looking to be part of the early pace. Once he got off the synthetics in California, he blossomed He won the Illinois Derby wire to wire, but Hawthorne is a quirky track and favors front runners.
8. Dean’s Kitten (Robby Albarado and Michael Maker) 50-1. This is another one that has done his best running on ‘fake dirt.’ Owner Ken Ramsey said he’s getting too old and it’s time for one of his horses to win a Derby.
9. Make Music for Me (Joel Rosario and Alexis Barba) 50-1. He was the last one into the Derby field and if he hadn’t won a grass stakes in California, he’d still be a maiden after eight races. This one hasn’t been on dirt either.
10. Paddy O’Prado (Kent Desormeaux and Dale Romans) 20-1. This one has been the buzz of the backside for the last two weeks. He was second in the Blue Grass on April 10 at Keeneland and Romans said his horse loves Churchill Downs. His one work over the track on April 23 was a bullet 58.40 for five furlongs. He was seventh in his maiden race on July 4, 2009, over a sloppy Churchill Downs track.
11. Devil May Care (John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher) 10-1. She is one of only three horses in this field with 100 or better Beyer. She did that when she won the Bonnie Miss on March 20 at Gulfstream Park. She is supposedly Pletcher’s best bet since Eskendereya didn’t make the race. She also picks up blinkers for the Derby.
12. Conveyance (Martin Garcia and Bob Baffert) 12-1. He provides more speed to the equation. The son of Indian Charlie suffered his first defeat when he was beaten by Endorsement on March 28 in the Sunland Park Derby. He could be a factor in keeping Sidney’s Candy from getting to the rail from his far outside post.
13. Jackson Bend (Mike Smith and Nick Zito) 15-1. He reminds me of the little engine that could. He has either been first or second in his nine races. His one concern will be getting bumped around in the cavalry charge out of the gate because he is not a very big. He’s got tons of grit and I wouldn’t count him out. This is the second horse with a 100 or better Beyer
14. Mission Impazible (Rajiv Maragh and Todd Pletcher) 20-1. This is another ‘buzz horse’ and appears to be in good form after winning the Louisiana Derby. He’s another one that could be looking for an up-close position early.
15. Discreetly Mine (Javier Castellano and Todd Pletcher) 30-1. He was fourth in the Louisiana Derby after winning the Risen Star. There is more speed out of this post. Distance does raise its ugly head for him.
16. Awesome Act (Julien Leparoux and Jeremy Noseda) 10-1. Everybody is jumping on this guy saying he had a bad trip in Wood Memorial, plus he lost a shoe. He’s a European horse that needs cover. I don’t think he will have a problem finding that here. The problem could be getting uncovered in a 20-horse field.
17. Dublin (Terry Thompson and D. Wayne Lukas) 12-1. He may be the best looking horse at Churchill Downs, but looks are for beauty queens. He keeps disappointing this year and can’t seem to get over the top. Maybe the Derby. Maybe not.
18. Backtalk (Miguel Mena and Tom Amoss) 50-1. The son of Smarty Jones got into the Derby at the last minute because of defections. He hasn’t lived up to his 2-year-old form, but he does have a win this year over a sloppy track when he won at Delta Downs. I’m still passing on him.
19. Homeboykris (Ramon Dominguez and Richard Dutrow) 50-1. He has not raced since Feb. 27 when he was second in an allowance-race at Gulfstream. Dutrow was quoted as saying he didn’t think he could, he just wanted a paycheck. He’d settle for third or fourth. I think he’ll be much farther back than that.
20. Sidney’s Candy (Joe Talamo and John Sadler) 5-1. This is the third horse with the 100 Beyer and he invades from California and has done nothing wrong in his three starts this year. He has some speed, but I don’t think he needs to be the speed. Talamo should be able to see what is going on inside of him and hopefully get him over some before the first turn. If he duplicates the fractions in the Santa Anita Derby, even though he may not be on the lead, I think he wins this race.

The weather could play a big part in this year’s Derby. If the track comes up sloppy the speed could hold and we could see some blazing fractions. A wet-good track could be more tiring on the leaders and allow the closer to have their say.

Conveyance should be pushing the pace down the stretch the first time with Line of David, Super Saver and Sidney’s Candy in close order. Although I think Line of David is faster, I believe Bejarano will try and sit behind Conveyance.

Gomez may bide his time on Lookin At Lucky and try to hit the gaps when they open up down the lane the first time. If he can be sitting 10^th going into the first turn I think his chances are good. If he is shuffled to the rear, his chances are hurt. Gomez probably will try to ease him to the outside down the backstretch. If this happens, the horse will have a good chance when the real running begins.

I look for Conveyance to take them as far as he can and this should be somewhere around the quarter-pole. This is where Sidney’s Candy should strike. I think his turn of foot will be the difference here. If the real Sidney’s Candy shows up and his trip is not compromised, he wins from the eighth-pole in.

Super Saver also will roll late, along with a hard-charging Ice Box. The little guy Jackson Bend will be fighting for every inch. If my top choice, Sidney’s Candy, let’s me down, I’m looking for Ice Box and Jackson Bend to fight it out. If Jackson Bend wins, I would not be sad at all.

The picks: Sidney’s Candy (20), Jackson Bend (13), Ice Box (2) and Super Saver (4).

For the pure bettors, I would spread on both horizontal and vertical tickets with Lookin At Lucky (1), American Lion (8), Paddy O’Prado ( 10) and Mission Impazible (14). There also is a Super High 5 bet in the Derby, so I would choose from one of those four horses.