Bob Hill
Staff writer
Tracksideview.com

Veteran trainer Bob Baffert caught the TVG crew a little off guard in his interview from the winner’s circle at Hollywood Park on Saturday afternoon as he celebrated the decisive victory by his prized two-year -old Lookin At Lucky in the $750,000 Grade 1 CashCall Futurity. 

Lookin At Lucky all but assured himself of the Eclipse Award for the top two-year-old colt with the win as he had his picture taken for the fifth time in six tries.  His only defeat came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, a race in which just about everyone who saw it believes he would have won had he been drawn anywhere but in the far outside post position.

Baffert gushed with joy at what he had just seen in the CashCall, and he answered the question about some time off for Lookin at Lucky with the obvious answer that the colt would be rested for some time before racing as a three-year-old. Then he slipped in a zinger by stating that he thought he could prepare the son of Smart Strike for the Kentucky Derby with only a couple of prep races next spring, “probably on dirt.”  In a later interview Baffert mentioned Oak Lawn and New York as possible venues, stating that he had a barn full of good horses that he needed to spread around.

What Baffert did not say was that he has been watching the past two years when the West Coast champion three-year-old has gone to post on Derby Day for the first time on real dirt.  Colonel John finished sixth in 2008 and Pioneer of the Nile second in 2009. 

The Kentucky Derby is generally regarded as the toughest test in thoroughbred racing when young horses have to grow up in two minutes in a field often as large as 20 competitors.  Adding first-time-on-dirt to the angle has seemed to me like a risk that could be avoided, and I am happy to see that Baffert is going to go at this differently than the connections of the past two top California-based Derby hopefuls.

It is a tough spot for California racing to be in for sure.  If Lookin At Lucky is successful in prepping away from his home base others likely will follow suit in the future.  This reality comes within weeks of the growing rumor that the Breeders’ Cup may make its home permanently at Churchill Downs.  That move will be popular among all of the owners, trainers, jockeys, and fans who just do not like synthetic surfaces.  That enthusiasm most likely will not be shared by European connections, but I doubt that their point of view will hold much sway with those making the decision.  The combination of the New York contingent, fresh off being shut out in the Breeders’ Cup again this year, and the breeding industry headquartered in Kentucky represents a formidable power block.

The California thoroughbred industry already is suffering.  Average field size continues to be down at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita because of a shortage of horses on the West Coast.  The trend had started prior to the installation of synthetic surfaces there, but the attraction of a surface billed as safer has not resulted in an increase of horses in training.  If the best young horses leave the West Coast to prep for the prestigious Triple Crown races and if the Breeders’ Cup leadership succumbs to the growing pressure to run its races on real dirt, California may be forced to reinstall conventional surfaces or continue to watch its thoroughbred industry wither and die.