Bob Hill
Staff writer

It is tempting to reach the conclusion that neither the Gotham nor the Sham informs the Kentucky Derby conversation to any great degree, but I suggest that one not ignore either race.  The winner in the Gotham, Awesome Act, was making his first start on dirt and his first start of 2010.  He did go off as the favorite in the race, answered some questions, and left us with one nagging one to ponder.  Alphie’s Bet joined Caracortado as the second colt bred in California to appear to have a legitimate chance at excelling at the classic distances.

The Gotham

Trainer Wayne Lukas shipped Wow Wow Wow to Aqueduct and undoubtedly told Cory Nakitani to take him to the front.  He did just that, leading through opening fractions of 22.85 and 46.60 seconds before fading badly to finish eighth.  Peppi Knows also raced close to that pace before fading.  Three Day Rush stalked nicely, took the lead at the top of the stretch, but was overtaken by the eventual winner.  Yawanna Twist followed Awesome Act in rallying past the leaders down the stretch and actually closed ground on the winner in the final 100 yards.  Now we are left to decide whether Julien Leparoux geared Awesome Act down and skillfully measured each step of the race to leave plenty in the tank of the victor.  The other possibility is that the horse was tiring.  After watching the replay several times I am ready to give the benefit of the doubt to Awesome Act and Leparoux, thus making this relatively easy win one to be described as “convincing.”  He will face much tougher in his next race which most likely will be the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.

The Sham

One thing is for certain; when the ProRide is wet the times will be fast.  Alphie’s Bet stopped the timer for nine furlongs in the Sham in 1:48.72, a time slightly faster than the impressive win by Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth.  That said, it is important to remember where the track bias goes at Santa Anita when the synth is moist.

Last winter at Santa Anita, virtually every prep race for the Kentucky Derby lacked pace.  On Saturday, the raw numbers indicate a better and more legitimate pace which was set by El Mirage King and Nextdoorneighbor.  The leaders covered the first six furlongs in 1:12.22, and for the most part they faded badly when the running started in the final turn and home stretch. The Program was the first to strike the lead heading into the stretch, but that lead was short lived as Alphie’s Bet under a full head of steam overtook The Program and headed to the wire unchallenged.

A couple of weeks ago, Ron Correll, our leader here at Tracksideview.com, suggested to me that if you liked Caracortado you probably should like Alphie’s Bet.  That turned out to be very good advice.  It is important to remember that the Sham was postponed, a fact that could have negatively impacted some in the field.  Nextdoorneighbor appeared to be very fresh on the lead, so we may give him another chance.  The Program looks to me to be a miler, but I anticipate we will see him in another Derby prep race.  Setsuko rallied to finish second, and that effort should earn him a spot in the Santa Anita Derby.  The ones from this field that go on to that race will step up into better company unless other top West Coast colts follow Lookin At Lucky eastward.

Look Ahead

On Feb. 13 we can look forward to the Tampa Bay Derby, The Rebel, and the San Felipe.  We will see Noble’s Promise, Super Saver and Lookin At Lucky for the first time this year.

Top Ten

Lookin At Lucky, Eskendereya, Caracortado, Discreetly Mine, Rule, Conveyance, Sidney’s Candy, Buddy’s Saint, Super Saver, Tempted to Tapit

This list is certain to change after racing this week.