Bob Hill
Staff writer
Tracksideview.com 

As has been the case in recent Derby prep races, post-time favorites other than Lookin At Lucky have disappointed.  In the case of Connemara, third in the Grade 2 Lane’s End, his finish probably means the end of his run at making the Derby field.  He already would be in jeopardy, and with large amounts of stakes earnings still to be won by others the prospects for him are dimming.

I must make a confession about the outcome of the Lane’s End.  In our Picking Winners column last weekend I observed that if Dean’s Kitten won the Turfway classic on synthetics after running entirely on grass until Saturday that he would enter the Kentucky Derby having never raced on dirt.  There you have it – he won.  My confession is that I hate the circumstances that make such a situation possible.  I really like owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey, and I never wish any horse bad luck.  I just do not like the circumstances that put a horse like Dean’s Kitten in the Kentucky Derby field.

Before anyone gets misty eyed for trainer Todd Pletcher over the outcome of the Lane’s End, please note that Mission Impazible won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on the same day that Connemara lost.  Mission Impazible has plenty of graded stakes money now and will be in the starting gate on May 1 unless he suffers some kind of set back.  The connections that most likely were disappointed by the outcome of the Louisiana Derby were those of Drosselmeyer.  Trained by Bill Mott and owned by WinStar, Drosselmeyer was closing well at the end of nine furlongs, but his finish proved to be too little too late.  There has been speculation that he may be pointed to the Belmont Stakes. 

Trainer Anthony Dutrow pulled no punches in stating that if the decision were his he would not enter A Little Warm in the Kentucky Derby.  This colt ran a very strong race at the Fair Grounds setting the pace every step right up until the last yards of the race.  Discreetly Mine already has the money to be in the Derby field, but not many were surprised as he slipped to a fourth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby on the heels of a less-than-impressive win in the Risen Star.  He’s looking more like a Pletcher also-ran, but I suspect we will see him on Derby Day.

The most visually impressive of the three prep races to me was the Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby contested on Sunday.  Conveyance went off as a prohibitive favorite and dictated the pace throughout all but the final furlong of the race.  Endorsement, making only his fourth lifetime start and his first in a graded stakes race, stalked that pace and ground Conveyance down by the sixteenth pole.  I love his pedigree and could easily embrace this horse going forward.  His foundation is at least a race light to excite me too much, but I will take a long look at him as he progresses.  Conveyance had no excuses as he was simply beaten by a better horse on this day.  He has plenty of earnings to be in the Derby field. 

The disappointment in the Sunland Park Derby belongs to the connections of Tempted to Tapit.  He appeared to close well in the Risen Star, and I among others thought he might be the top competition for Conveyance.  He, too, stalked the pace in a manner similar to that of the winner, but he did race at least a lane wide throughout.  He is short on earnings now so he is probably off the Derby trail.

Looking Ahead

This coming Saturday will bring us the Grade 1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  The Grade 2 Illinois Derby also will be run at Hawthorne Park on that same day.

The decision of Bob Baffert to keep Lookin At Lucky at home and race him in the  Santa Anita Derby is bad news for a couple of others in this field.  Caracortado will try to rebound from his less than impressive run in the San Felipe.  Sidney’s Candy won that race, but most think he got away easy plus he is light on greenbacks and needs a good finish to make the Derby field.  Alphie’s Bet moved into the Derby picture when he won the Sham, but he too needs money to make the Derby field.  Unless one of horses other than the Lucky One wins and another finishes second at Saturday, at least a couple of hopefuls in this field will get left out of the early May party.

Backtalk flashed his speed in his last workout at the Fair Grounds prior to shipping to Hawthorne for the Illinois Derby.  American Lion and Dave in Dixie look like his main competition in this race.

The Wood picked up Schoolyard Dreams this week because trainer Derek Ryan was able to get Ramon Dominguez aboard there.  It looks to me like the Wood comes up as the best prep to date with that one plus Eskendereya, Awesome Act and Jackson Bend.

Top Ten

Lookin At Lucky, Eskendereya, Noble’s Promise, Sidney’s Candy, Endorsement, Mission Impazible, Dublin, Conveyance, Ice Box, Schoolyard Dreams